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Military history is full of plans that seem obvious only after they succeed, and laughable only after they fail. The difference rarely lies in courage, and almost never in effort, since both sides generally have plenty of both. What distinguishes victories from disasters is a combination of intelligence, timing, logistics, and the plan’s ability to withstand its first encounter with the weather, the terrain, and unpredictable human behavior. Sometimes the smartest decision is a feint that lures the enemy into fighting a pointless war, and sometimes the “brilliant” idea is nothing more than wishful thinking disguised as strategy. Here are ten plans that worked impressively well and ten others that collapsed under the weight of their own assumptions.

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