20 Battles That Were Won by Pure Luck

Themistocles’ message prompted the Persian commanders to enter narrow waters where their larger fleet could not maneuver properly. Once the Persian line was squeezed together, collisions and blocked retreats multiplied faster than any admiral could remedy. The victory may not have been entirely due to luck, but the fact that the Persians took the bait was a risky gamble that allowed the Greeks, vastly outnumbered, to emerge victorious.

During the fighting, the Umayyad commander Abd al-Rahman was killed, and this single loss disrupted coordination. Suddenly deprived of its leadership, the army retreated during the night rather than risk a disorganized pursuit. The victory depended on a casualty in battle that no plan can guarantee, especially in close combat.

The English had to cross a narrow bridge, and the Scots waited until most of them had crossed before launching their attack. This timing trapped the advancing troops, who had limited space to deploy and even less to retreat. As luck would have it, the enemy entered a bottleneck at just the right moment.

Heavy rains turned the battlefield into deep mud, slowing down the French armored troops, exhausting them, and forcing them to huddle closely together. The English archers did not create the conditions, but they took advantage of them, as the French attacks collapsed under their own weight. These conditions allowed the English to neutralize the French, even though the latter outnumbered them.

Richard III was counting on the Stanleys’ support, but they held back until the moment when their decision would determine the outcome of the battle. When they finally sided with Henry Tudor, Richard’s position collapsed within minutes. This reversal was essentially a political gamble that backfired at the worst possible moment for the king.

At the start of the battle, shifting wind conditions helped the Holy League’s galleys maneuver and maintain their cohesion. The Ottoman formations, which relied heavily on speed and coordination, suffered when conditions became less favorable. The element of luck was not just the wind itself, but the moment it shifted, as that timing turned the weather into an advantage.

English fire ships scattered the Spanish Armada’s formation, forcing it to move hastily and break anchor. Then, storms drove the Armada away from safe routes and into rough seas as it attempted to return home. Nature finished the job.

The Ottoman siege had pushed Vienna to the brink of collapse, and a delay of just a few days might have made surrender more likely. Allied relief forces under the command of John III Sobieski arrived just in time to force a pitched battle rather than a final collapse. Without that perfect timing, Vienna would certainly have been incorporated into the Ottoman Empire, and the world map might look different today.

British troops scaled the cliffs of Anse-au-Foulon during the night, taking a route that should have been too risky to pull off discreetly. A French sentry reportedly responded to their challenge in a way that prevented an immediate alarm, buying them precious minutes. The decisive battle was won in 30 minutes, which means that the British strategy worked—not because it was brilliant, but because they were very lucky.

The crossing and the march on Washington took place under harsh winter conditions, which dashed the enemy’s expectations of an attack and allowed the Americans to take cover. The Hessian garrison was caught off guard by a dawn assault under these conditions. 

Nelson spotted the French fleet late in the day and, instead of waiting, attacked immediately, forcing the battle to continue into twilight and darkness. The French, who thought they were safe at anchor—even within the gaps in their defensive position—were suddenly overwhelmed at high speed. The stroke of luck was not merely the discovery itself, but the fact that they were spotted at a time when an effective response was nearly impossible.

The British assault plans relied on troops carrying ladders and fascines to overcome obstacles, but due to the fog, essential equipment and units arrived late or were lost. As the attackers were held up in front of the prepared American positions, they came under devastating fire without the tools needed to carry out their plan. The attack failed largely because essential equipment was not where it was supposed to be when it was supposed to be there.

Union forces found themselves concentrated on Cemetery Hill and along Cemetery Ridge, largely because of the way the retreat had unfolded on the first day. This “hook”-shaped position gave them a strong defensive position just as the battle was intensifying. As luck would have it, the army’s makeshift assembly point turned out to be exactly the kind of terrain that was ideal when the enemy went on the offensive.

The route taken by the Russian fleet led it toward the Tsushima Strait, making its approach more predictable than any commander would have wished. The Japanese forces were able to position themselves to intercept it and concentrate their fire from the very beginning. Environmental factors pushed the Russians into the battle that Japan wanted, giving Japan the advantage even before the first shots were fired.

Russian forces transmitted key messages without adequate encryption, and the Germans intercepted them. The Germans made a bold and reckless decision to rely on that intelligence and shift most of their forces to encircle the Russians, but it ultimately paid off.

The German armies advanced while widening the gap between them, which created an exposed flank. Allied reconnaissance spotted this opening, and a swift counterattack exploited it before it could be closed. A few days’ march in a different formation might have concealed this breach. 

A belated Japanese reconnaissance report and shifting decisions left Japanese aircraft carriers with fully fueled and fully armed aircraft on deck just as American dive bombers arrived. The American torpedo attacks, though costly, helped bring down Japanese combat air patrols and drive them from their positions. The strike occurred during a period of vulnerability in the ship’s cycle that could not have been planned intentionally.

At the start of the siege, bad weather limited Allied air support, which helped increase German pressure. When the skies cleared, airdrops and airstrikes resumed, rapidly changing the situation regarding supplies and on the battlefield. The fact that the weather cleared at that precise moment of despair was regarded by many as a “Christmas miracle.”

A small group of American escort aircraft carriers encountered a much more powerful Japanese force, and the Japanese commander misjudged the situation he found himself in, amid smoke, aggressive defense, and confusing reports. This uncertainty, combined with surprisingly fierce American torpedo attacks and aerial harassment, contributed to the Japanese retreat, even though Japan had a much more powerful fleet.

Faced with a desperate situation, UN forces planned a daring landing at Incheon, a Korean port city considered tactically challenging but strategically vital. The landing site was subject to extreme tides and had tricky approaches, which meant that the number of hours during which a landing was possible was limited. Success depended on the ability to take advantage of this tidal window while maintaining the element of surprise and momentum, as any delay could have left the forces stranded in the mudflats under enemy fire.