97 clashes in a single day: Ukraine absorbs the blows and strikes back; Pokrovsk holds firm

Lyman: Twelve Attacks in a Single Day

In the Lyman sector, Russian forces launched twelve attacks near Novovodiane, Novoiehorivka, Kolodiazi, Drobyshcheve, and Myrne. One clash was still ongoing. Twelve times, the Russians attempted to break through. Twelve times, they were met with a defense that refuses to yield. Russian milbloggers—those pro-Kremlin war correspondents—claim that their forces have advanced north and south of Lyman, northeast and southwest of Korovii Yar, and toward the northeastern outskirts of Svyatohirsk. But these claims remain unconfirmed. On the ground, the reality is more complex, bloodier, and less triumphant.

In Sloviansk, the enemy made a single attempt to advance on Ukrainian positions near Platonivka. One attempt. One failure. In Kramatorsk, an assault by the invaders toward Stupochky was recorded. Just one. But in this war of attrition, every assault counts. Every attempt wears down the defenders. Every battle won is a victory wrested from fatigue, fear, and exhaustion.

Kostiantynivka: Fifteen Breakthrough Attempts

In the Kostiantynivka sector, the enemy made fifteen attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses near Kostiantynivka itself, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillia, Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka, and toward Sofiivka. Two engagements were still underway. Fifteen assaults. Fifteen human waves launched against fortified positions. Fifteen times, the defenders had to hold their ground, fire, and repel the attacks. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical zone reported that the range of Russian drones had increased significantly in 2025, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to move around Kostiantynivka.

Russian drones are attempting to cut off Ukrainian land communication lines, but poor weather conditions are hampering drone operations. Strong winds during snowstorms are severing the fiber-optic cables attached to Russian drones. Nature itself is becoming a player in this war. The cold, the wind, the snow—unpredictable but sometimes decisive allies. Geotagged images show Ukrainian forces operating south of Kostiantynivka, in an area that Russian sources claimed to control. The reality on the ground contradicts the propaganda. As always.

Fifteen assaults. Fifteen. In a single day. In a single sector. And that’s just one sector among many. Multiply that by all the hotspots along the front, and you begin to grasp the scale of what’s happening. It’s a war of total attrition. A war where every day is like the one before, where every battle blends into the next, where exhaustion becomes the norm. And yet, they hold on. Day after day, they hold on.

Twenty-seven assaults, a Russian obsession

Let’s return to Pokrovsk. Because that’s where everything is at stake. That’s where the Russian 51st Combined Army is throwing all its forces into the fray. Twenty-seven attempts to dislodge the Ukrainian defenders from their positions. Twenty-seven assaults near Razine, Shakhove, Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk itself, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, and toward Novopavlivka and Filiia. The defending forces are holding the line. They have already repelled twenty-six attacks. Only one is still underway at the time of this report.

Serhiy Okishev, spokesperson for the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Airborne Forces, stated that Russian forces are advancing toward Hryshyne and Rodynske, conducting mechanized assaults in an attempt to cut off land communication lines to Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces still control the north of Myrnohrad, and the Russians are attempting to gain a foothold on the eastern outskirts of the city. Okishev added that Russian forces have not conducted motorized or mechanized assaults near Myrnohrad since early January 2026. A change in tactics? A pause to regroup? Or simply the exhaustion of an army that has been pushing for too long?

The Tactics of Infiltration

A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating near Myrnohrad reported that there are approximately twelve military units from Russia’s 51st Combined Arms Army operating in and around the city. Russian forces have reduced the intensity of their open assaults since the beginning of 2026, while increasing attempts at covert infiltration into the city’s residential areas by small groups of two to four people. It is a war of shadows—a war in which the enemy no longer charges en masse but instead slips in, hides, and strikes by surprise.

Russian fiber-optic drones with a range of 10 to 20 kilometers are disrupting Ukrainian logistics and expanding the zone of destruction. But cold weather conditions are causing the drones’ batteries to lose power more quickly, complicating Russian fiber-optic drone operations. Once again, nature is intervening. The January cold has become an unexpected ally. Another spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade in the Pokrovsk sector reported that Russian forces continue to use infiltration tactics and ATVs in their area of responsibility. They are focusing on capturing Bilytske and advancing toward Dobropillya, while continuing mechanized assaults to meet an unspecified deadline for capturing Bilytske.

A deadline. They have a deadline. Someone, somewhere in an office in Moscow, set a deadline for the capture of Bilytske. And now, men are dying to meet that deadline. Soldiers are being sent into battle, again and again, because a general promised a victory by a specific date. It’s obscene. This is the absurd logic of this war—lives sacrificed for arbitrary objectives, for lines on a map, for reports that must be positive.

Oleksandrivka: Twelve Assaults Repelled

In the Oleksandrivka sector, Ukrainian troops repelled twelve enemy assaults. Russian forces are attempting to advance near Piddubne, Sosnivka, Vyshneve, Rybne, Yehorivka, and Krasnohirske, with two engagements still ongoing. In addition, Malomykhailivka was struck by guided aerial bombs. Twelve assaults. Twelve attempts to break through. Twelve failures. The pattern repeats itself, sector after sector. The Russians attack. The Ukrainians hold their ground. Casualties mount on both sides. But the line does not budge.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Vidradne, south of Oleksandrivka. This claim has not been confirmed. On the ground, Russian forces attacked northeast of Oleksandrivka near Zelenyi Hai and southeast near Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, Stepove, Verbove, Krasnohirske, and Vyshneve. Everywhere, the same story. Attack. Resistance. A bloody stalemate.

Huliaipole: Sixteen Clashes

In the Huliaipole sector, sixteen clashes took place near Solodke, Huliaipole itself, Varvarivka, and Zelene. Three clashes were still ongoing. Geotagged images show two Russian soldiers from the 36th Motorized Brigade raising a flag in the center of Bratske, northwest of Huliaipole. The ISW assesses that this was a Russian infiltration mission that did not alter control of the terrain or the front line at that time. A propaganda photo. A flag planted for the cameras. But on the ground, nothing has changed.

Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed that Russian forces had taken Bratske. Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces had advanced east of Bratske, northeast of Zaliznychne, and northwest of Dorozhnyanka. Claims. Propaganda. Disputed reality. In the Orikhiv sector, no enemy offensive action has been recorded since the start of the day. A respite. A lull in the storm. Temporary, no doubt.

Sixteen clashes in Huliaipole. Twelve in Oleksandrivka. Fifteen in Kostiantynivka. Twenty-seven in Pokrovsk. Add it all up, and you get ninety-seven. Ninety-seven times today, men fought. Ninety-seven times, blood was shed. Ninety-seven times, someone didn’t make it home. And tomorrow, it will start all over again. That’s what war of attrition is. That’s the daily hell of the Ukrainian front lines.

Lviv Under Fire from a Ballistic Missile

As the front lines flared up, another threat loomed over Ukraine. On the night of January 8–9, preliminary, unconfirmed reports suggested that Russian forces may have launched an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike against the Lviv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force issued a missile alert throughout Ukraine around 11:30 p.m. local time due to the threat of a Russian ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar—the presumed launch site of Russia’s first Oreshnik strike against Ukraine in November 2024.

Explosions were reported in the Lviv Oblast. The BBC’s Ukrainian Service reported that unofficial monitoring channels had detected launch activity at the Kapustin Yar missile launch site in the Astrakhan Oblast. Ukrainian media outlets and X accounts noted that Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channels suggested Russian forces may have carried out an Oreshnik strike. A Ukrainian Telegram source posted footage apparently showing multiple strikes in rapid succession, which could demonstrate the Oreshnik’s independently targetable multiple re-entry vehicle payload.

The Nuclear Threat Brandished

Russian milbloggers claimed that an Oreshnik struck the gas field and storage facility near Stryi, in the Lviv Oblast. The mayor of Lviv, Andriy Sadovyi, said there had been a series of powerful explosions in the city that evening, and the head of the Lviv Oblast military administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, said Russian forces had struck an unspecified critical infrastructure facility in the region. Sadovyi later stated that it was currently unclear whether Russian forces had used an Oreshnik against the Lviv Oblast. The ISW cannot independently verify whether the strike against the Lviv Oblast was an Oreshnik strike.

The Kremlin has leveraged the November 2024 Oreshnik strike and subsequent threats to use the Oreshnik against Ukraine as part of a reflexive control campaign aimed at discouraging Western support for Ukraine and has intensified its efforts to threaten the West with Oreshniks since the fall of 2025. This is psychological warfare. It is a threat brandished to paralyze, to frighten, to divide. The Oreshnik missile—capable of carrying nuclear warheads—is becoming a tool of blackmail. A sword of Damocles hanging over Europe.

When I read these reports about the Oreshnik—this missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads—I feel my stomach knot up. Because that’s Putin’s game. Brandishing the nuclear threat. Instilling fear. Dividing the West. And it’s working. It works because fear is a powerful weapon. Because no one wants to be the one who triggered the apocalypse. So we hesitate. We stall. And in the meantime, Ukraine is bleeding.

Staggering Numbers

Behind these ninety-seven clashes lies a human cost—one that Russia is paying ever more dearly. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian casualties are reaching unsustainable levels. Al Jazeera reported on January 8 that Russian war deaths are rising to unsustainable levels, according to Ukraine. The exact figures are impossible to verify—the fog of war obscures reality—but the trends are clear. Russia is throwing men into battle with a recklessness reminiscent of the darkest hours of World War II.

Mechanized assaults, waves of infantry, suicide raids—all of this comes at a price. A price paid in human lives. Russian soldiers sent into battle without adequate preparation, without sufficient support, without any real hope of success. Just to meet a deadline. Just to be able to tell Moscow that the offensive is continuing. Just to keep up the pressure. Russian cemeteries are filling up. Families are mourning. But the war machine keeps churning on.

Attrition as a Strategy

This is a war of attrition. A war where victory is not measured in kilometers gained but in the ability to hold out longer than the enemy. The Russians attack. The Ukrainians defend. Both sides are wearing themselves down. But who will crack first? That is the question haunting every military report, every strategic analysis, every sleepless night for commanders on both sides. For now, Ukraine is holding its ground. Ninety-seven clashes. Twenty-six attacks repelled in Pokrovsk. Twelve in Oleksandrivka. Sixteen in Huliaipole. The numbers speak for themselves.

But for how much longer? How long can they hold out under this pressure? How long before fatigue, exhaustion, a shortage of ammunition, and a lack of men eventually cause the line to collapse? These are the questions that go unanswered in military reports. These are the questions that haunt the nights of Ukrainian soldiers, holed up in their trenches, waiting for the next assault. These are the questions that should haunt the West, comfortably settled far from the front lines, debating whether to send more aid or negotiate a peace that would resemble a surrender.

Ninety-seven clashes. I always come back to that number. Because it sums it all up. The intensity. The exhaustion. The determination. The madness of this war. Ninety-seven times today, men had to choose between holding out or giving in. Between living or dying. Between resisting or surrendering. And ninety-seven times, they chose to hold out. It’s heroic. It’s tragic. It’s unbearable. And yet, it goes on.

The United Kingdom Supplies Air Defense Systems

In response to the escalation of Russian drone and long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure, the United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with air defense systems. British Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces Al Carns reported on January 6 that the United Kingdom had delivered 13 Raven air defense systems and two prototype Gravehawk air defense systems to Ukraine, and that the first batch of the remaining 15 contracted Gravehawk systems would arrive in Ukraine at an unspecified date in the near future.

Russian long-range missile and drone strikes seek to exploit the insufficient number of Ukrainian air defense systems to protect both the front lines and the rear, and the British supplies will help create a denser Ukrainian air defense umbrella. This is crucial aid. It is support that saves lives. But is it enough? Faced with the dozens of drones and missiles that Russia launches every night, faced with the threat of the Oreshnik, and faced with the intensity of the bombardments, thirteen Raven systems and two Gravehawk prototypes seem paltry.

Security guarantees rejected by Moscow

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has once again explicitly rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing with Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded on January 8 to recent efforts by the Coalition of the Willing to finalize the details of a multinational force deployment in Ukraine to ensure a future ceasefire, which Zakharova described as “militaristic statements” from a “war axis.”

Zakharova stated that Russia will view Western military deployments in Ukraine as “foreign intervention” that poses a “direct threat” to Russia’s security and as “legitimate combat targets” for the Russian military. Zakharova reiterated the Kremlin’s calls for any future peace agreement to address the alleged “root causes” of the war and include provisions on Ukrainian neutrality, “demilitarization”—reductions to the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself—“denazification ”—the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government—and protections for ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. Russia’s original war aims from 2022. Nothing has changed. Moscow still wants it all. Ukraine still refuses to give in.

Zakharova speaks of “root causes.” Of “demilitarization.” Of “denazification.” Empty words. Euphemisms for: we want to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state. We want a puppet government. We want Ukraine to be unable to defend itself ever again. And the West? The West debates. Hesitates. Stalls. While ninety-seven clashes take place in a single day. While men are dying to defend their country. While Pokrovsk holds firm, despite twenty-seven assaults. Indignation chokes me up.

A day like any other, and yet

January 9, 2026, will go down in history as just another day in this endless war. Ninety-seven clashes. Hundreds of soldiers engaged. Dozens dead, likely. The wounded. The traumatized. Villages bombed. Infrastructure destroyed. Just another day on the Ukrainian front. And yet, within these numbers, within these dry, factual military reports, there is something remarkable. There is resistance. There is a refusal to give in. There is the determination of a people who refuse to disappear.

Pokrovsk is holding out. Twenty-six out of twenty-seven attacks have been repelled. Kupiansk is holding its ground. Lyman is not giving in. Kostiantynivka is fighting back. Oleksandrivka is repelling the attacks. Huliaipole is holding firm. All along the front, the same story repeats itself. The Russians attack. The Ukrainians defend. The line isn’t moving. Or barely at all. At the cost of immense sacrifices. At the cost of shattered lives. At the cost of exhaustion that builds up, day after day, week after week, month after month. But the line is holding. For now, it’s holding.

I’m finishing this piece and I feel drained. Ninety-seven clashes. Ninety-seven times today, men risked their lives. Ninety-seven times, they said no to the invader. And tomorrow, it will start all over again. And the day after tomorrow. And the day after that. Until when? I don’t know. No one knows. But what I do know is that every day Ukraine holds out is a victory. Every repelled assault is a triumph. Every soldier who returns alive is a miracle. Pokrovsk is holding out. Ukraine is holding out. And I, from afar, watch these numbers roll by, and I tell myself that as long as they hold out, hope will hold out too. Fragile. Exhausted. But alive. Just like them.