A Framework for Strategic Cooperation
The highlight of this first day in Beijing was the signing of an economic and trade cooperation agreement—a roadmap to boost trade after years of diplomatic difficulties. Although this document is non-binding, it marks the start of ministerial-level dialogues that had not taken place for nearly a decade, according to a senior Canadian official. The energy agreement, in particular, represents an important first step, with a commitment from both sides to keep communication channels open to resolve issues related to trade in agricultural products. It is a concrete gesture that shows both countries are ready to move past their differences.
In this roadmap, Ottawa welcomed Chinese investments in energy, agriculture, and consumer goods, while Beijing expressed eagerness to see Canadian investments in services, new materials, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, among other sectors. This is a balanced approach that recognizes the mutual needs of both economies. Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Tim Hodgson stated that he had heard “very clearly” that China was seeking reliable trading partners and would like to import more Canadian energy products. The Chinese, it seems, are ready to do business—but on their own terms.
You have to read between the lines of this energy agreement. It’s not a binding treaty with quantified commitments and specific deadlines—it’s more of a memorandum of understanding, a philosophical statement that, yes, perhaps we could do business together. And that is both encouraging and worrisome. Encouraging because dialogue has finally been reestablished; worrying because Beijing holds all the cards. They’re telling us, “We want your energy,” but they’re not signing anything that obligates them to buy it. This is international bargaining, and we’ll have to be very shrewd to avoid getting taken advantage of.
Oil, Gas, and Uranium on the Line
The memorandum of understanding signed by Hodgson and his Chinese counterparts builds on a previous agreement and stipulates that the two countries will discuss the development of oil and gas resources, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas, as well as emissions reductions. But Beijing has not committed to purchasing more Canadian oil and LNG, which is certainly a disappointment for producers in Western Canada who were hoping for firm contracts. On the energy front, both sides plan to explore oil and gas development, as well as cooperation in the trade of natural uranium.
This nuclear dimension is particularly interesting. Canada possesses significant uranium reserves and recognized expertise in the nuclear sector, while China is seeking to diversify its sources of nuclear fuel supply as part of its energy transition. The energy dialogue established by this agreement could pave the way for collaboration in this strategic sector, where security and nonproliferation issues are obviously crucial. Carney also emphasized that these agreements provide “an example of cooperation to the world” at a time of global division and turmoil.
Section 3: The Tense Context of Sino-Canadian Relations
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Ten Years of Diplomatic Turmoil
Relations between Canada and China haven’t always been this cool—far from it. The past decade has been marked by periods of tension that have significantly eroded trust between the two nations. Carney’s visit is, in itself, an attempt to recalibrate ties that had seriously deteriorated under Justin Trudeau’s government. The two countries have had major disagreements on issues ranging from human rights to national security, trade, and technology. These tensions ultimately affected economic exchanges, with tangible consequences for businesses and workers on both sides.
China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, but relations have soured over the years. Ottawa has repeatedly expressed concerns about Beijing’s trade practices, particularly what it considers to be unfair competition policies and massive state subsidies that distort global markets. For its part, China has criticized what it perceives as Canada’s interference in its internal affairs and its overly close alignment with U.S. policies that are hostile toward China. It is against this backdrop of mutual mistrust that Carney is now attempting to reestablish a constructive dialogue.
When looking at the history of Sino-Canadian relations, one can’t help but think it’s a bit like a couple in a never-ending argument. On one side is Canada, which feels morally superior and lectures others on democracy; on the other is China, which puts its economic interests above all else and does not appreciate having its conduct dictated to it. The result: years of diplomatic squandering and missed opportunities. Carney is now trying to pick up the pieces, but he cannot erase ten years of mistrust with a wave of a magic wand. It is a long-term effort that will require patience, tact, and probably a healthy dose of political realism.
The Tariffs That Escalated the Situation
The most recent tipping point came in 2024, when the Trudeau government imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, following a similar move by the United States. At the time, Trudeau justified these tariffs by arguing that Chinese government subsidies had given Chinese manufacturers an unfair advantage in the global market, harming the prospects of the Canadian auto industry. China retaliated last March with tariffs on more than $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, such as canola oil and canola meal, followed by tariffs on canola seeds in August.
These retaliatory measures had an immediate and visible impact: Chinese imports of Canadian goods fell by 10.4% in 2025. Canola producers, particularly in Western Canada, were hit hard by this escalation of protectionism. Canola is a key crop for Canadian agriculture, and China has traditionally been one of its most important markets. The loss of this access has created a major crisis for farmers who depend on these exports. Carney is now under immense pressure to secure relief for the Canadian agricultural sector, but so far, negotiations have not yet led to a clear resolution.
Section 4: Washington's Shadow and the Quest for Independence
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Trump Upsets Alliances
It is impossible to understand Carney’s visit to China without considering the U.S. context. President Donald Trump has shaken up traditional alliances since his return to the White House, imposing tariffs on certain Canadian goods last year and suggesting that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state. These remarks, while certainly provocative, reflect a deeper reality: the United States no longer necessarily views Canada as a respected partner, but rather as an extension of its domestic market that it can treat as it sees fit.
Last Tuesday, Trump stated that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is set to be renegotiated this year, was “irrelevant” to the United States. This statement is extremely concerning for Ottawa, which relies on this agreement to govern its trade relations with its southern neighbor. Historically, Canada has sent about 75% of its exports to the United States—an economic dependence that makes it extremely vulnerable to the whims of U.S. politics. Carney’s visit to China must be viewed through this lens: it is an urgent attempt to diversify Canada’s trade partnerships to reduce this dangerous dependence.
Trump is like that toxic parent who can’t help but put you down no matter what you do. On the one hand, he treats you like his little puppet; on the other, he threatens to destroy you if you don’t bow to his demands. And Canada, that docile model student, has spent decades accepting this treatment out of fear of losing access to the U.S. market. But now, it’s become unbearable. When Trump talks about making Canada the 51st state, it’s not a joke—it’s a threat. And Carney has understood one fundamental thing: the only way to stop being treated like an American province is to prove that we have other options.
Diversification Is Now a Matter of Urgency
Carney’s strategy is clear: to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. China, with its vast market and constant demand for natural resources, is obviously a cornerstone of this strategy. Canada possesses enormous reserves of oil, gas, minerals, and agricultural products that China—with its population of 1.4 billion and its rapidly growing economy—desperately needs. This economic complementarity is obvious, but it took a deterioration in relations with Washington for Ottawa to finally take diversification seriously.
Canadian Industry Minister Mélanie Joly told reporters that Canada and China are now entering “a new era of partnership.” These words are not insignificant: they mark a deliberate break from the previous approach, which prioritized relations with the United States at the expense of other markets. Of course, no one is suggesting that Canada could or would want to completely replace its partnership with the United States—that is economically impossible—but diversification has become a matter of strategic prudence. As the saying goes, you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, and Ottawa has learned this lesson the hard way.
Section 5: What the Agreement Really Says
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Non-binding commitments
It is important to understand the precise nature of the agreement signed this Thursday in Beijing. The memorandum of understanding on energy is a non-binding document, which means it does not create any legal obligations for either party. Rather, it is a declaration of intent that establishes a framework for future discussions and collaboration. Carney and his ministers presented this agreement as an important step, but it contains no export quotas, guaranteed prices, or quantified commitments of any kind. To skeptics, this is a small step; to optimists, it is a necessary start.
The text of the memorandum stipulates that the two countries will engage in a ministerial-level dialogue on energy—something that has not taken place for nearly a decade—and will explore opportunities in the oil, gas, nuclear, and clean technology sectors. It also mentions a willingness to collaborate on reducing emissions, which is particularly relevant given Canada’s climate ambitions and China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. But beyond these declarations of intent, the agreement contains no implementation mechanisms or specific timeline.
I’m not going to lie: when I read the details of this agreement, my first reaction was, “Is that it?” A non-binding memorandum of understanding, with no concrete commitments, no figures, and no deadlines—that’s what’s known as “diplomatic language” in political jargon. Carney can shout from the rooftops that this is a historic agreement, but for now, it’s mostly symbolic. And symbols are fine, but they don’t pay the bills. Canadian farmers who are losing millions due to Chinese tariffs don’t need symbols—they need contracts. Alberta’s oil producers don’t want declarations of intent—they want pipelines and customers. The real question is: will this symbol turn into substance?
China Wants It, But Isn’t Making Promises
Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, was cautious but optimistic in his remarks to reporters. “They’re very clear—they’d like to have more Canadian products,” he said, adding that Chinese officials are looking for reliable partners and “want more of what we have.” ” But this expressed demand did not translate into formal commitments in the memorandum. Beijing maintained a cautious stance, acknowledging interest in Canadian energy resources but without signing any long-term purchase agreements.
This typically Chinese approach comes as no surprise. Beijing generally prefers to keep its options open and maximize its room for maneuver in international negotiations. By expressing interest in Canadian energy products without making a formal commitment, China is sending a positive signal to Ottawa while reserving the right to pursue other suppliers if the terms are not to its advantage. For Canada, this means that competition for access to the Chinese market will remain fierce, and that concessions on other issues—notably tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles—may be necessary to secure firm contracts.
Section 6: Business Meetings That Matter
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CATL, Alibaba, and the Chinese Giants
During his stay in Beijing, Carney didn’t just meet with political leaders. The Canadian prime minister held a series of meetings with executives from major Chinese companies, recognizing that trade relations are built as much in boardrooms as in government buildings. Among the companies he visited were Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the global giant in electric vehicle batteries; China National Petroleum Corp; and executives from Envision Energy, a manufacturer of smart wind turbines.
These meetings are strategically important in several respects. CATL, in particular, represents a major opportunity for Canada, which is seeking to develop its own value chain for electric vehicles. Batteries are the most expensive component of electric vehicles, and control over their production is essential to the future competitiveness of the Canadian automotive industry. Establishing partnerships with CATL could give Canada access to cutting-edge technologies and potentially attract investment in domestic battery manufacturing. Similarly, discussions with China National Petroleum Corp could open up opportunities for Canadian oil and gas producers.
There is something ironic about this picture: a Canadian prime minister courting Chinese tech giants while his own country has built its prosperity on traditional industries. It’s as if Canada has suddenly realized that to remain relevant in the 21st-century economy, it must reinvent itself. And that reinvention goes through Beijing, whether we like it or not. CATL, Alibaba, Envision Energy—these are the players shaping today’s global economy, and Canada wants its seat at that table. It’s a mix of brutal realism and boundless ambition that, honestly, might just pay off.
Cross-border investments on the horizon
The discussions aren’t limited to Canadian exports to China. The economic roadmap signed on Thursday also highlights Beijing’s interest in Canadian investments in services, new materials, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing. Carney also met with officials from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the investment firm Primavera Capital Group, and e-commerce giant Alibaba. These conversations suggest a broader vision for the China-Canada economic relationship, based on two-way investment flows rather than simply one-way trade.
For Canada, attracting Chinese investment in sectors such as aerospace and advanced materials could bring capital and technologies that would accelerate its transition to a more diversified and innovation-driven economy. The Canadian aerospace industry, with companies like Bombardier and CAE, is already a global player but could benefit from strategic partnerships with Chinese companies seeking to expand their capabilities in this sector. Similarly, investments in advanced materials—particularly for batteries and energy technologies—could position Canada as a critical supplier in the global technology supply chain.
Section 7: Canadian Agriculture Remains Under Pressure
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The Canola Issue Remains Unresolved
Despite optimistic statements about a “new era of partnership,” one of Canada’s most pressing issues remains unresolved: Chinese tariffs on agricultural products, particularly canola. China imposed tariffs on more than $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products last March, followed by tariffs on canola seeds in August, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. These measures caused a 10.4% drop in Chinese imports of Canadian goods in 2025.
Canola producers, particularly in western provinces such as Saskatchewan and Manitoba, are bearing the brunt of these retaliatory measures. Canola accounts for a significant portion of agricultural revenue in these regions, and China has traditionally been one of their most important markets. The loss of this market access has created a major economic crisis, with farmers left with unsold surpluses and plummeting prices. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe accompanied Carney to Beijing, emphasizing the importance of this issue for his province and the hope for an agreement that would lift these punitive tariffs.
We can talk for hours about strategic partnerships and energy agreements, but to a Saskatchewan farmer whose fields are full of canola he can no longer sell in China, none of that means anything. That’s the harsh reality of geopolitics: grand diplomatic statements don’t put food on the table. And what frustrates me the most is that Canadian farmers are paying the price for a trade war they didn’t choose. They’re being held hostage in a conflict between Ottawa and Beijing, and for now, no one seems able to get them out of this mess. Carney can meet with as many Chinese ministers as he wants, but if he doesn’t come back with a deal on canola, many farmers won’t forgive him.
Producers are waiting for answers
So far, negotiations on agricultural tariffs have not led to a clear resolution. Mélanie Joly, the Canadian Minister of Industry who is part of Carney’s delegation, told reporters that “negotiations are still ongoing” when asked if Canada might reduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by 50%. Negotiations will continue on Friday, she added. This caution suggests that the two sides are still far from a compromise, and that the concessions needed to lift Chinese tariffs on Canadian agriculture have yet to be determined.
Foreign Minister Anita Anand said Wednesday that the discussions were “constructive” in efforts to convince China to lower its tariffs on the agricultural sector. But without concrete details on what Canada is willing to offer in exchange, producers remain in limbo. Representatives of the Canadian agricultural industry are putting intense pressure on the government to secure rapid relief, but Ottawa must navigate economic imperatives, political considerations, and relations with Washington, which is closely monitoring this rapprochement with Beijing.
Section 8: Diplomacy in Action
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Zhao Leji and Li Qiang on the Front Lines
Carney’s meetings with Chinese leaders were carefully orchestrated to demonstrate the seriousness of this effort to build closer ties. During his meeting with Zhao Leji, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Carney reiterated his optimism about the progress of bilateral relations. Zhao, for his part, stated through an interpreter that Xi will hold in-depth discussions with Carney on Friday and that China is ready to move forward with their strategic partnership. These ceremonial exchanges are essential for building trust and reaffirming the political commitment of both sides at the highest level.
Earlier in the day, Chinese Premier Li Qiang had told Foreign Minister Anita Anand that Carney’s visit marks a turning point in relations and that Beijing is willing to remove obstacles and improve communication and trust. This statement is significant because it comes from the Chinese regime’s second-in-command, suggesting that the rapprochement with Canada has the approval of the highest authorities. Li Qiang, a close ally of Xi Jinping, holds a key position in the Chinese hierarchy, and his explicit support for this restoration of relations sends a strong signal to various Chinese government agencies and companies.
It is fascinating to observe this diplomatic dance in real time. Every word is weighed, every gesture is calculated, every meeting is carefully scheduled to convey a specific message. Carney praises Xi’s leadership, Zhao Leji promises in-depth discussions, Li Qiang speaks of a historic turning point—all of this composes a symphony of carefully orchestrated cooperation. But behind the ceremonial choreography lie real and conflicting interests that are at odds with one another. China is no philanthropic benefactor—it pursues its own geopolitical and economic interests with cold determination. Carney knows this, and his job is to navigate these murky waters without getting swept away.
The Anticipated Meeting with Xi Jinping
The highlight of this visit will be the meeting scheduled for this Friday between Carney and President Xi Jinping. This meeting follows their first meeting in South Korea last October, which had already marked the beginning of a thaw in relations. Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in decades, wields unprecedented control over the state apparatus, and his personal support is essential for any meaningful agreement. The discussion is expected to cover not only trade issues but also broader geopolitical concerns.
For Carney, this meeting represents both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, it offers the chance to establish a direct personal relationship with the Chinese leader, which could help resolve stalled issues and open up new opportunities for cooperation. On the other hand, it will highlight the deep differences between the two countries on issues such as human rights, international security, and global governance. Carney will need to strike the right balance between the need to advance Canada’s economic interests and upholding the fundamental values he represents.
Conclusion: A New Chapter Is Beginning
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Toward an Era of Partnership?
As this first day of talks in Beijing draws to a close, it is clear that something has changed in the relationship between Canada and China. After years of tension and mutual mistrust, the two countries seem determined to explore a new chapter in their relationship. Carney stated that the progress made in recent months will help prepare Canada and China “for the new world order” and that by working together, the two countries will be able to create “greater stability, security, sustainability, and prosperity for all our peoples.”
This ambitious vision reflects Ottawa’s recognition that the world is undergoing profound change and that traditional alliances are no longer sufficient to guarantee Canada’s security and prosperity. China’s rise as an economic and geopolitical power is an undeniable reality, and it is in Canada’s best interest to build a constructive relationship with this Asian giant rather than remain locked into exclusive dependence on the United States. The energy agreement signed on Thursday, though modest in its immediate scope, represents a first step in this direction.
When we look at this trip as a whole, we can’t help but feel a mixture of hope and apprehension. Hope because, at last, Canada seems to be taking its destiny into its own hands and daring to look beyond its southern neighbor. Apprehension because Beijing is not an easy partner, and the necessary concessions could come at a high cost. But honestly, the status quo was no longer tenable. Canada cannot continue to depend on the United States for 75% of its trade in a world where Washington is becoming increasingly unpredictable and protectionist. Carney made a courageous decision by engaging with China, and only history will tell if it was the right one. But one thing is certain: he chose action over inaction, and that deserves respect.
The Challenges That Remain
Yet, many obstacles remain. Tariffs on Canadian agricultural products remain in place, and no firm agreement has been reached on increased purchases of Canadian oil and gas. The Chinese companies Carney met with remain cautious in their commitments, preferring to maintain maximum flexibility. And in the United States, the Trump administration is viewing this rapprochement with growing suspicion, which could have consequences for the already fragile trade relations between Washington and Ottawa.
The road to a true strategic partnership between Canada and China will be long and fraught with obstacles. It will require patience, diplomatic tact, and likely painful concessions on both sides. But Carney’s visit undeniably marks the beginning of a new Canadian approach to its international relations—an approach that recognizes that in a multipolar world, Canada must diversify its alliances and build relationships with a variety of partners to ensure its future prosperity and security. The first chapter of this new story is being written this week in Beijing, and the chapters that follow will depend on Carney’s ability to transform this initial step toward reconciliation into a lasting and mutually beneficial partnership.
Sources
Primary sources
Hindustan Times, “Canada’s Mark Carney hails warmer ties with China and signs energy pact,” January 15, 2026
Reuters, “Canada’s Carney hails warmer ties with China and signs energy pact,” January 15, 2026
CBC News, “Carney’s First Day in China Secures Agreement on Energy—But No Tariff Breakthrough Yet,” January 15, 2026
Bloomberg, “China, Canada Sign Energy Deal to Boost Trade and Investment Ties,” January 15, 2026
Secondary Sources
Chatham House, “As Carney visits China to diversify Canada’s trade, the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ further strains U.S. relations,” January 2026
New York Times, “Caught Between Superpowers, Canada Seeks a New Path in Beijing,” January 14, 2026
BBC News, “Canada’s Carney to Visit Xi in China, Marking a ‘Turning Point’ in Relations,” January 2026
North Shore News, “A Timeline of a Turbulent Decade in the Canada-China Relationship,” 2025
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