COLUMN: As Canada Burns, Alberta Flirts with Trump

Who are these separatists negotiating with Washington?

The Alberta Prosperity Project presents itself as an educational, nonpartisan group advocating for a referendum on Alberta’s independence. On its website, the organization speaks of “Alberta sovereignty” and “greater control over provincial responsibilities.” But behind this polite language lies a clear ambition: to make Alberta an independent country. The group is currently working to collect the 178,000 signatures needed to force a vote on the issue. Jeffrey Rath, one of the APP’s leaders, confirmed that the group is seeking another meeting with U.S. officials in February 2026 to discuss this much-talked-about $500 billion line of credit.

Legitimate grievances hijacked for dangerous purposes

Let’s be clear: Alberta has reason to be frustrated. The province generates 15% of Canada’s GDP with only 12% of the population. It produces more than 80% of Canada’s oil and 60% of its natural gas. Yet, unlike Quebec and Manitoba, it receives no federal equalization payments. Albertans feel like they’re paying for everyone else without getting their fair share. Federal environmental policies, carbon pricing, pipeline blockades—all of this fuels deep resentment toward Ottawa. These grievances are real, even legitimate. But using them as a pretext to ally with a hostile foreign power crosses a red line.

I understand Albertans’ anger. I really do. When you work hard, when you generate wealth, and you feel like everything is being taken from you without anything given in return, it’s normal to be angry. But there’s a difference between wanting more autonomy and going to beg for money from a president who wants to destroy your country. A huge difference. And that difference is called loyalty. Not blind loyalty, no. But loyalty to a shared vision, to an idea of Canada worth fighting for—not one to be sold to the highest bidder.

David Eby Dares to Say the Forbidden Word

British Columbia Premier David Eby didn’t mince words. “Going to a foreign country and asking for help to break up Canada—there’s an old-fashioned word for that, and that word is treason,” he said last Thursday. His words hit like a bombshell. Because in Canada, we don’t talk about treason. We talk about “legitimate aspirations,” “democratic debate,” and “the right to self-determination.” But Eby broke that taboo. And he’s right. When you ask a hostile foreign power to help you weaken your own country, that’s exactly what it is: treason.

The deafening silence of certain leaders

But not all Canadian leaders have had Eby’s courage. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith refused to condemn the separatists, stating that she did not want to “demonize or marginalize a million of her fellow citizens.” Smith, who visited Mar-a-Lago in January 2025 while most other Canadian leaders were criticizing Trump, is walking a tightrope. She panders to separatist sentiments while claiming to defend Canadian unity. Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, called for national unity, but without directly condemning the APP’s actions. This complacency is dangerous. It normalizes the idea that one can negotiate with a hostile foreign power without consequences.

Smith’s silence terrifies me. Because that’s exactly how things spiral out of control. You start by saying you understand the frustration. Then you refuse to condemn those who cross the red lines. And before you even realize it, you’ve normalized the unacceptable. Smith is playing with fire. And all of us are going to get burned if she keeps this up. Because a leader—a true one—doesn’t pander to the worst instincts of their people. They elevate them. They remind them of what unites us rather than what divides us.

An Albertain at the Helm of Canada

No one can fail to see the irony of the situation. Mark Carney, Canada’s new prime minister, is himself a native of Edmonton, the capital of Alberta. He knows the frustrations of his home province all too well. Last Thursday, Carney stated that he expected the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty. “I’ve been clear with President Trump on this issue,” he said. But these words ring hollow given the scale of the threat. Carney recently signed an agreement with Alberta to pave the way for a pipeline to the Pacific—a major concession intended to ease tensions. But will it be enough?

A Strategy of Compromise in the Face of Aggression

Carney is walking on eggshells. On one hand, he must stand firm against U.S. interference. On the other, he must ease tensions with Alberta to prevent the separatist movement from gaining even more momentum. It’s an impossible balancing act. Because Trump isn’t looking for a compromise. He’s seeking to destroy Canada from within. And every concession, every sign of weakness, only encourages him. Former prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Stephen Harper have called for national unity in the face of Trump. But unity isn’t enough when the enemy is within.

Carney is in an impossible position. I can see that. He’s trying to hold the country together with duct tape and prayers. But how do you do that when part of your own country is negotiating with the enemy? How do you maintain unity when some of your citizens prefer Trump to you? It’s a question that haunts me. Because if we don’t find an answer quickly, we’ll wake up one morning to discover that Canada no longer exists. And it will be too late to cry.

When Quebec Sought France’s Support

Canada has faced separatist crises before. The Quebec independence movement dominated Canadian politics for decades. The Parti Québécois even sought France’s support, notably under Charles de Gaulle with his famous “Vive le Québec libre!” in 1967. But there is a fundamental difference from the current situation. France never sought to annex Quebec. Its interest was cultural, not territorial. France would have been the first country to recognize an independent Quebec—right after Canada itself. It was a delicate diplomatic dance, but never an existential threat to Canada.

Trump is no de Gaulle

Trump, on the other hand, wants to annex Canada. He’s said so. His officials have echoed this. Scott Bessent refers to Alberta as a “natural partner” for the United States. This isn’t cultural affection. It’s pure and simple imperialism. U.S. national security analyst Brandon Weichert even suggested on Steve Bannon’s show that a vote for independence in Alberta would prompt the United States to recognize the province and guide it toward U.S. statehood. This is not a conspiracy theory. These are public statements by officials and analysts close to Trump. Context changes everything. This is no longer separatism. It is collaboration with a hostile power.

You can’t compare this to Quebec. You just can’t. Because France has never threatened to invade Canada. It has never talked about annexing us. It has never tried to destroy us from within. Trump, on the other hand, is doing just that. Openly. Shamelessly. And some Canadians are cheering him on. It’s beyond me. Really. How can anyone be so blind? How can anyone fail to see that Trump couldn’t care less about Alberta? He just wants its resources. Its oil. Its gas. And once he has them, he’ll toss Albertans aside like used tissues.

A Province That Carries Canada on Its Shoulders

The numbers speak for themselves. Alberta generates 15% of Canada’s GDP with only 12% of the population. The province produces more than 80% of Canada’s oil and 60% of the country’s natural gas. In 2024–2025, Alberta contributed massively to federal coffers without receiving a single dollar in equalization payments. Meanwhile, Quebec and Manitoba receive the highest payments. For many Albertans, this is a glaring injustice. They work, they produce, they generate wealth—and they feel like they’re being robbed.

Polls Reveal a Deep Divide

A recent Ipsos poll shows that about three in ten Albertans would support launching a process toward independence. That’s a huge number. But the poll also reveals that about one in five of these supporters view a vote for independence as largely symbolic—a way to signal their political dissatisfaction rather than a firm desire for independence. That’s where the danger lies. Because symbols can become reality. A protest vote can turn into a national disaster. And once you’ve opened Pandora’s box, you can’t close it again.

I get the numbers. I get the frustration. But for God’s sake, can we just stop for two seconds and think about the consequences? Do you really think Alberta will be better off as a U.S. state? Do you really think Trump is going to treat you better than Ottawa? Look at how he treats his own states. Look at how he treats Puerto Rico. Look at how he treats anyone who isn’t rich and white. Alberta won’t be a partner. It’ll be a colony. A source of resources to be exploited until there’s nothing left.

A referendum is not enough

Even if the APP succeeds in collecting the 178,000 signatures required and a referendum is held, Alberta’s independence would not be automatic. The Clarity Act, passed after the Quebec referendums, establishes strict rules. The federal government would first have to determine whether the referendum question was clear and whether the result represented a clear majority. Only then would negotiations begin, covering issues such as the division of assets and debts, borders, and the rights of Indigenous peoples. This process could take years, or even decades.

First Nations Rights: A Major Obstacle

One aspect often overlooked in the debate over Alberta’s independence concerns the rights of First Nations. Vast swaths of Alberta are covered by treaties with Indigenous peoples. These treaties were signed with the Canadian Crown, not with a hypothetical independent Alberta. First Nations would have a say in any secession process. And many of them have already expressed their opposition to the idea of an independent Alberta, fearing that their rights will not be respected. This is a legal and moral obstacle that separatists prefer to ignore.

And what about the First Nations in all this? Are we even talking about them? Because it’s their land. Before it was Alberta, before it was Canada, it was their land. And now, people want to sell it to Trump without even asking them for their opinion? That’s colonialism 2.0. It’s exactly what our ancestors did 150 years ago, but this time with an American flag. And we dare to call that “sovereignty”? It’s obscene.

A Multifaceted Strategy of Destabilization

What Trump is waging against Canada is not a conventional war. It is a hybrid war—the kind of conflict that combines economic threats, political interference, disinformation, and support for separatist movements. Russia has perfected this approach in Ukraine and the Baltic states. Trump is now applying it to Canada. Threats of 100% tariffs, statements about annexation, support for Alberta separatists—all of this is part of a coherent strategy aimed at weakening Canada from within. The goal is not necessarily to annex the entire country, but to destabilize it enough so that it can no longer resist U.S. demands.

Is Canada prepared for this threat?

The honest answer is no. Canada is not prepared to face a hybrid war waged by its closest ally. Our democratic institutions are fragile. Our national unity is precarious. Our media are weakened. And our political leaders seem paralyzed, unable to call the threat what it is. Andrew Coyne, a columnist for The Globe and Mail, posed a heart-wrenching question: “Is it possible to commit treason against a country that does not believe it has the right to exist?” This may be the most important question of all. Because if we do not believe that Canada deserves to exist, why would anyone else believe it does?

That’s where we stand. A country that no longer even knows if it has the right to exist. A country so accustomed to flagellating itself, to apologizing, to belittling itself, that it no longer knows how to defend itself. Trump has figured this out. He knows we won’t fight back. He knows we’ll negotiate, that we’ll make compromises, that we’ll try to appease him. And in the meantime, he’ll continue to dismantle us piece by piece. Until there’s nothing left. Until Canada is nothing more than a memory, a footnote in the history books. And we’ll have let it happen.

An Existential Crisis for Canada

We are at a turning point. What is happening with Alberta and Trump is not just another episode in the long saga of Canadian separatism. It is an existential crisis. For the first time in our history, a hostile foreign power is actively interfering in our internal affairs with the explicit goal of destroying our country. And some of our fellow citizens are collaborating with this power. Whether out of naivety, anger, or political calculation, the result is the same: they are weakening Canada at a time when we most need to be united. The Alberta referendum could take place this year. Signatures are currently being collected. And if this vote takes place, regardless of the outcome, the damage will be done. The mere holding of a referendum on independence while Trump threatens to annex Canada will be perceived as a victory by Washington.

There’s still time to choose our side

But it’s not too late. We can still choose. Albertans can choose to remain Canadian, to fight to reform the country rather than destroy it. Political leaders can choose to name the threat, to condemn those who collaborate with Trump, to defend Canadian sovereignty unequivocally. And all of us, ordinary citizens, can choose to remember what unites us rather than what divides us. Because in the end, that’s the question. Does Canada deserve to exist? Is this shared project—imperfect but precious—worth fighting for? My answer is yes. Without hesitation. But I can’t answer for you. Everyone must make their own choice. And we’ll have to make that choice soon. Very soon.

I don’t know how this will all end. Honestly, I don’t know. Maybe we’ll wake up. Maybe we’ll realize what we’re losing before it’s too late. Or maybe we’ll keep tearing each other apart, dividing ourselves, hating one another, until there’s nothing left to save. What I do know is that I refuse to accept that. I refuse to stand by and watch my country be torn apart without saying a word. I refuse to let Trump and his accomplices destroy what generations of Canadians have built. So yes, I’m going to keep writing. Keep speaking out. Keep fighting. Because that’s all I can do. And I hope you’ll do the same. Because if we don’t fight now, we’ll never fight.

Signed, Jacques Provost