COLUMN: As Trump and Xi Play Poker Over Taiwan, the World Holds Its Breath

What the U.S. president didn’t say speaks volumes

On Truth Social, Trump posted an enthusiastic message after the call. He talked about Ukraine, fentanyl, soybeans, and agricultural products. He praised the “excellent” relationship between the United States and China. But Taiwan? Not a word. Not a single mention of the democratic island whose fate so concerns Xi Jinping. This silence speaks volumes. According to the Chinese account of the call, Trump reportedly told Xi that he “understands the importance of the Taiwan issue to China.” This phrasing leaves room for doubt. To understand is not to approve. But it doesn’t mean rejection either. It’s a diplomatic gray area where anything could happen. Trump also confirmed that he would visit Beijing in April 2026 and that Xi would come to Washington later that year. These state visits could seal Taiwan’s fate.

Trump’s silence on Taiwan terrifies me more than any bellicose statement. Because it suggests behind-the-scenes horse-trading. A transactional deal in which Taiwan could become a bargaining chip. Trump has always been a businessman first and a statesman second. And in the business world, everything is negotiable. Even the freedom of 23 million people.

When Xi Silences Dissenting Voices Within the Military

What makes this call even more troubling is the current military context in China. Recently, Xi Jinping purged General Zhang Youxia, China’s highest-ranking military officer. Zhang was known for his candor and his understanding of the difficulties involved in invading Taiwan. He did not hesitate to tell Xi that taking Taiwan by force would be extremely costly and risky. But Zhang is gone. And his replacements? Younger, less experienced officers—and, above all, ones less inclined to contradict the president. According to analyst Mary Gallagher of World Politics Review, this purge makes a war over Taiwan “more likely.” Why? Because Xi will no longer hear the voices that temper his ambitions. He will be surrounded by yes-men who will tell him what he wants to hear.

This purge sends a chill down my spine. Because it brings to mind the worst moments in history, when authoritarian leaders eliminate the advisors who dare to speak the truth. Stalin purged his generals before World War II. Hitler surrounded himself with loyalists rather than strategists. And each time, the result was catastrophic. Xi is creating an echo chamber where no one will dare tell him that invading Taiwan would be a disaster.

Taipei Refuses to Let Others Dictate Its Future

In response to Xi’s statements, Taiwanese Prime Minister Cho Jung-tai reacted firmly the day after the call. “We must emphasize once again that the Republic of China, Taiwan, is a fully sovereign and independent country,” he declared before parliament. And he added, with a clarity that leaves no room for doubt: “For the 23 million citizens of our nation, ‘returning’ is not an option—that is very clear.” ” These words resonate like a cry of resistance. Taiwan is not a rebellious province meekly waiting to return to the Chinese fold. It is a thriving democracy, with its own government, its own military, and its own identity. The Taiwanese have voted, elected their leaders, and built a free society. And they are not ready to give all that up.

The dignity of Taiwan’s response moves me deeply. Because it reminds us that behind the geopolitical maneuvers, there are human beings. Families. Dreams. Lives that refuse to be sacrificed on the altar of imperial ambitions. But will that dignity be enough in the face of Chinese missiles? In the face of American indifference? I’d like to believe so. But history has taught me to be realistic.

Tokyo Draws Its Own Red Line

The situation is further complicated by Japan’s entry into the fray. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, recently stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute an “existential threat” to Japan and could trigger a Japanese military response. These remarks sparked outrage in Beijing. China immediately responded by banning certain Japanese seafood products, curtailing tourism to Japan, and canceling joint cultural events. A diplomatic war has broken out between the two Asian powers. Takaichi also spoke with Trump by phone following the Trump-Xi conversation, discussing the U.S.-Japan alliance and challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan, unlike the United States, seems ready to draw clear red lines.

Japan’s courage gives me a little hope. Because it shows that some countries are willing to defend their values, even in the face of a giant like China. But this courage also terrifies me. Because it could turn a regional crisis into a global conflagration. If China attacks Taiwan and Japan intervenes, the United States will be obligated to follow suit under the mutual defense treaty. And suddenly, we’ll find ourselves on the brink of World War III.

When Rare Earths Become Geopolitical Weapons

The Trump-Xi call comes amid tense trade relations. During their meeting in October 2025 in Busan, South Korea, the two leaders had reached a fragile trade agreement. China had agreed to suspend certain restrictions on the export of rare earths—critical minerals of which Beijing controls nearly 90% of global production—for one year. In exchange, the United States had cut its tariffs on Chinese goods in half, from 20% to 10%. But the cumulative tariffs remain at nearly 50%. And China’s suspension is only temporary. In a few months, Beijing could once again cut off the U.S. supply of rare earths, paralyzing entire sectors of the U.S. economy—from the automotive and defense industries to electronics. Trump also mentioned a deal on soybeans, with China committing to purchase 12 million metric tons in 2025 and 25 million in 2026.

This trade haggling disgusts me. Because it reduces matters of life and death to financial transactions. How much is Taiwan’s freedom worth? 25 million metric tons of soybeans? Guaranteed access to rare earths? It’s obscene. But it’s also the reality of the world we live in—a world where everything can be bought and sold, even democratic principles.

The Lessons Xi Draws from the War in Europe

The call also addressed the issue of Ukraine. Xi Jinping reiterated his support for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, while maintaining close ties with Russia, one of China’s major trading partners. For Xi, Ukraine offers valuable lessons. He is observing how the West reacts to territorial aggression. He notes the divisions within NATO, American hesitation, and European fatigue. And he draws conclusions from this for Taiwan. If Russia can invade Ukraine without catastrophic consequences for Moscow, why couldn’t China do the same with Taiwan? Trump, for his part, is pushing for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, which could free up U.S. attention for the Indo-Pacific. Or, conversely, signal a U.S. disengagement from distant conflicts.

Ukraine haunts me. Because it is a real-world testing ground for autocrats around the world. Xi looks at Ukraine and thinks to himself, “I can do that too.” Putin invaded a sovereign country, and the world did not respond with the necessary force. Sanctions weren’t enough. Military aid wasn’t enough. And now, Xi is doing the math. How many sanctions can China absorb? How long will the West remain united? The answers to these questions will determine Taiwan’s fate.

When Analysts Predict the Worst

Many China experts are sounding the alarm. Mary Gallagher, in her column for World Politics Review, writes that “Xi must feel emboldened by what he hears from Trump, who has often seemed disengaged and transactional toward Taiwan.” Other analysts note that China’s window of opportunity could close in the coming years, as Taiwan strengthens its defenses and the United States reposition its forces in the region. This creates a dangerous sense of urgency. Xi might be tempted to act quickly, before the military balance becomes too unfavorable. The Pentagon estimates that China could have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027. It is now 2026. The countdown has begun.

These predictions send a chill down my spine. Because they aren’t the fantasies of warmongering hawks. They are sober assessments by professionals who have been studying China for decades. And they all say the same thing: the risk of war has never been higher. Xi has the means. He has the motivation. And now, with Trump seemingly ready to negotiate, he might have the opportunity. We’re on the brink of disaster, and no one seems to really realize it.

When History Takes a Turn with a Single Phone Call

That call on February 4, 2026, between Trump and Xi was not just a routine diplomatic exchange. It was a pivotal moment—one of those instances when history can take a dramatic turn. Xi laid his cards on the table: Taiwan is non-negotiable. Trump listened, nodded in agreement, and remained publicly silent on the subject. Meanwhile, 23 million Taiwanese are waiting to find out whether their freedom still means anything in the eyes of the world. Japan is drawing red lines. Experts are sounding the alarm. And we, powerless spectators of this geopolitical theater, are watching the pieces fall into place for what could be the most devastating conflict of the 21st century. The coming months will be decisive. The state visits scheduled for 2026 could seal Taiwan’s fate. Or, on the contrary, they could offer one last chance to preserve peace. But one thing is certain: the status quo will not last forever.

I don’t know how this story will end. But I do know one thing: we are living through a historic moment, and we don’t even realize it. In ten years, twenty years, our children will ask us, “What did you do when Taiwan was under threat?” And what will we tell them? That we looked the other way? That we prioritized trade over freedom? That we let a democracy be swallowed up by a dictatorship because it was more convenient? I refuse to accept this inevitability. I refuse to believe that the world has become so cynical, so transactional, so indifferent. But my refusal won’t change anything if we don’t wake up. Now. Before it’s too late.

Signed, Jacques Provost