COLUMN: Oil Prices Are Back Up to $100, and So Is the Cost of a Tank of Gas—But When Prices Drop Again, Guess Who’ll Keep the Difference

Wednesday: the party. Thursday: the hangover

On Wednesday, the markets had skyrocketed. The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Washington, Tehran, and Tel Aviv had sparked a wave of optimism. Investors had seen the light at the end of the tunnel. Twenty-four hours later, the light turned out to be an oncoming train.

Three parties, three versions, zero real agreement

The United States, Iran, and Israel cannot agree on the details of their own ceasefire. This is not a technical misunderstanding. It is a fundamental disagreement over what was signed, what was promised, and what should happen next. Strategists at Macquarie, led by Thierry Wizman, put it bluntly: the upward pressure on oil prices could be “here to stay for a while.”

And yet, that word—“ceasefire”—continues to circulate in the headlines as if it meant something concrete. It means nothing as long as the parties cannot agree on its definition.

When the Fear of Running Out Creates a Shortage

Here’s what Macquarie analysts point out—and what few media outlets explain clearly: the danger doesn’t come solely from fighting that might resume. It comes from buyer behavior. When an importing country fears that bombs might hit pipelines or tankers, it does what anyone would do when a storm is forecast—it stocks up. It buys more than it needs. It accumulates. It hoards.

The paradox of stockpiling: removing oil from the market without firing a single shot

This rush to stockpile physically removes oil from the available market—exactly as if strikes had destroyed infrastructure. The result is the same: less oil available, higher prices, and consumers footing the bill for a war that doesn’t even need to escalate to cause pain. The fear of war produces the same economic effects as the war itself. It is the most perverse vicious cycle in the oil market.

Before the war, after the war, during the war

Before the conflict, Brent crude was trading around $70 a barrel. At the height of concerns, it briefly hit $119. On Thursday, it was hovering around $98. Do the math: even in a so-called “optimistic” scenario, with a shaky ceasefire on the table, oil still costs 40% more than before the crisis.

A 40 percent increase that no one disputes

No one seems to find it unusual that the price of oil is 40% above its pre-war level, even though a ceasefire is supposed to have been signed. This figure should be on the front page of every business newspaper on the planet. It should trigger congressional hearings. It should be the subject of investigative committees. It triggers nothing. The abnormal has been normalized.

The Rocket and the Feather: The Most Well-Documented and Most Unpunished Phenomenon in the Economy

You said it. You’ve all noticed it. When the price per barrel rises, the price at the pump follows within hours. Sometimes even the same day. Gas stations adjust their prices with surgical precision, as if their computer systems were directly linked to the West Texas Intermediate price.

But when the price per barrel drops? Silence. The price at the pump stays stuck there, motionless, for days, weeks, sometimes months.

A name for this scam: “rockets and feathers”

Economists call this phenomenon “rockets and feathers.” Prices shoot up like rockets and drift down like feathers. This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s a phenomenon that has been studied, documented, and published in dozens of academic journals since the 1990s. Researchers Bacon (1991) and Borenstein, Cameron, and Gilbert (1997) have proven it using massive datasets. The phenomenon exists. It is real. It is systematic.

And yet, nothing changes.

The “replacement costs” argument

The oil industry has a ready-made explanation. It calls it the replacement-cost theory. When the price of crude oil rises, it says, gas stations must immediately charge the replacement cost of the next shipment—which is more expensive than the fuel currently in their tanks. The argument has its own internal logic. It explains the rapid price increase.

But it doesn’t explain the slow decline

If the replacement-cost logic justifies an immediate increase, it should just as readily justify an immediate decrease when the next shipment costs less. Yet that is not what happens. The decline is always slower. Always. All over the world. In every market. Under every government. The consistency of this phenomenon rules out coincidence. Something that shoots up like a rocket and comes down like a feather isn’t physics. It’s strategy.

Billions of Invisible Dollars

A study by the University of California, Berkeley, estimated that the “rocket-feather” asymmetry costs American consumers between 2 and 4 billion dollars a year in overpayments. In Canada, estimates vary, but the principle is the same: each cycle of rising and falling oil prices leaves a residual margin in the industry’s pockets that consumers never recoup.

Taxpayers Pay Twice

You pay once at the pump—the inflated price that doesn’t come down as quickly as it should. You pay a second time through inflationary effects: transportation costs more, goods cost more, food costs more. Everything that moves costs more when gas prices don’t come down. And you just stand there, staring at the gas station display like you’re looking at a taxi meter stuck on the night rate.

A Permanent Crisis as a Permanent Excuse

Here’s what the current crisis offers the oil industry: a state of perpetual uncertainty. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains a zone of tension, as long as the ceasefire remains fragile, and as long as mines float in the world’s most strategic shipping lane, no one can demand lower prices. Uncertainty has become a business model.

When Geopolitics Becomes a Pricing Tool

It’s not that oil companies cause crises. It’s that they have no reason to want them resolved quickly. Every week of uncertainty in the Middle East is a week of inflated margins that will never be questioned. From the perspective of an oil giant’s balance sheet, conflict isn’t a problem. It’s a favorable environment.

And yet, no one is asking the burning question: who benefits from the chaos?

Optimism one day, doubt the next

On Wednesday, investors were buying anything that moved. The ceasefire was a buy signal. On Thursday, those same investors were selling. The ceasefire was just a press release. The speed of the turnaround should terrify anyone who believes that financial markets operate on the basis of rational analysis.

Simply Good Foods and Constellation Brands: The Real Economy Behind the Headlines

While everyone was fixated on the price of oil, Simply Good Foods—the company behind the Quest and Atkins brands—plummeted 15.1% after reporting worse-than-expected revenue. CEO Joe Scalzo called the results “unsatisfactory” and announced “immediate changes.” On the other end of the spectrum, Constellation Brands—home to Modelo beer and Robert Mondavi wines—rose 5.3% after a better-than-expected quarter. But even Constellation withdrew its financial guidance for the coming year, citing “limited short-term visibility.”

Limited short-term visibility. If one phrase sums up the state of the global economy in April 2026, it’s this one.

The Winners No One Asks About

When oil hits $100 a barrel, the major oil companies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies—post record profits. Oil-producing countries see their revenues skyrocket. Commodity traders rake in astronomical commissions on every price fluctuation. Chaos pays off for those on the right side of the trade.

The Losers Everyone Ignores

On the other side: you. The worker filling up their car to get to work. The mother figuring out if she can afford both the trip to the grocery store and the month’s heating bill. The independent truck driver whose profit margin is melting away like snow in the sun. The small business owner whose delivery costs have just jumped 30% without anyone offering him a reprieve. The war in the Middle East may be ending. The war on your purchasing power, however, is just beginning.

The Tax Trap of Expensive Gas

Here’s the secret governments will never tell you out loud: high oil prices suit them just fine. In Canada, the GST is applied to the total price at the pump. The higher the price, the more tax revenue increases. The same logic applies in Europe with VAT. In the United States, federal and state taxes on gasoline generate billions of dollars that fund road infrastructure.

Regulating the price means regulating their own revenue

Asking a government to force oil companies to lower prices at the pump more quickly is like asking it to reduce its own tax revenue. It’s like asking the wolf to vote for the protection of the lambs. The conflict of interest is structural. It is embedded in the very architecture of the tax system. And that is why, despite decades of public complaints and academic studies proving this asymmetry, no serious legislation has ever been enacted to address it.

Twenty-one kilometers of water holding the world hostage

The fact that a 21-kilometer stretch of water can drive up gas prices in Trois-Rivières, Toulouse, and Tulsa says more about our energy vulnerability than any report from the International Energy Agency. Seventy years after the first oil crisis, we are still held hostage by the same geography, the same tensions, and the same bottlenecks.

The Energy Transition: A Promise That Is Constantly Postponed

Every oil crisis reignites the debate on the energy transition. Every oil crisis ends without anything fundamental having changed. Oil at $100 should be a compelling argument for accelerating the shift to renewable energy. It will, as usual, be an argument for drilling more. They say history doesn’t repeat itself. It stutters. When it comes to oil, it has been stuttering since 1973.

Two weeks to do what?

The announced ceasefire is scheduled to last two weeks. Two weeks during which the three parties cannot agree on the terms. Two weeks during which mines are still floating in the Strait of Hormuz. Two weeks during which oil remains blocked in the Persian Gulf. This isn’t a ceasefire. It’s a publicity stunt.

The Diplomacy of the Press Release

There was a time when a ceasefire meant the guns fell silent. In 2026, a ceasefire means a press release has been issued. The difference between the two is the difference between putting out a fire and tweeting that you’ve put out a fire. The markets believed the tweet on Wednesday. On Thursday, they smelled the smoke.

And yet, somewhere in a newsroom, someone is writing a headline with the word “peace” in it.

The Scenario No One Wants to Consider

If the ceasefire collapses—and the current disagreements make this scenario entirely plausible—oil won’t return to $100. It will surge toward the $119 mark it has already reached, and potentially beyond. Every escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushes the ceiling a little higher. And every new ceiling becomes the new floor—because oil prices, like prices at the pump, skyrocket and then plummet.

The Vicious Cycle of Preemptive Stockpiling

The more unstable the situation, the more countries stockpile. The more they stockpile, the less oil is available. The less oil is available, the higher prices rise. The higher prices rise, the more unstable the situation is perceived to be. It’s a self-perpetuating spiral that doesn’t need a single additional bomb to cause considerable damage.

The constant in the equation

Presidents come and go. Ceasefires are announced and then collapse. Oil prices rise and—in theory—fall again. Analysts publish reports. Oil companies report record profits. The constant in this equation is you. You, the one who pays. You, the one who fills up your tank. You, the one who looks at the gas station price display and feels that simmering anger rising—an anger that no one in power seems to hear.

The question no one asks you

Have you noticed that the price at the pump goes up as soon as the price per barrel rises, but barely goes down when the price per barrel falls? Of course you’ve noticed. You notice it every time. You point it out every time. And every time, nothing changes. Because the system isn’t broken. The system works exactly as it was designed. It’s designed so that money flows upward—like a rocket—and comes back to you—like a feather. If it comes back at all.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost