COLUMN: Trump is blocking Iranian ports with ships he claimed to have destroyed

London Says No, Madrid Shrugs

The United Kingdom does not support the blockade. Spain believes it makes “no sense.” France announces it will hold a conference with London to organize a “peaceful mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation”—a diplomatic way of saying: we are not participating in your escalation.

When your closest allies distance themselves with such unanimity, it’s not just caution. It’s a diagnosis. Only Benjamin Netanyahu, unsurprisingly, applauds. The Israeli prime minister even specified that the breakdown in negotiations came from the American side, due to the failure to “immediately open the strait.” When even Netanyahu corrects you on the timeline, the official narrative has a serious credibility problem.

China, Qatar, ASEAN: A United Front for Free Navigation

Beijing, which relies heavily on Iran for its oil supply, has called for the restoration of “unimpeded” navigation. Turkey, ASEAN, and Qatar—the latter explicitly requesting that sea lanes not be used as a means of “bargaining”—form an unusual front.

This is no longer a bilateral conflict. It is a systemic crisis in global maritime trade. And oil prices, which spike with every all-caps statement on Truth Social, reflect in real time the cost of improvisation.

The toll no one wants to hear

More than 6,000 people have died since February 28—mostly in Iran and Lebanon. Six thousand lives. In a month and a half. And the ceasefire, which expires on April 22, is still holding—on paper. In reality, neither Washington nor Tehran has indicated whether they intend to honor it beyond that date.

Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are trying to “bridge the differences” between the two sides, according to Axios. “Bridging the differences”: a diplomatic phrase to describe the task of defusing a bomb whose manufacturers both refuse to provide the blueprints.

Lebanon Under Bombardment, Left Out of the Ceasefire

Israel maintains that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. Four people were killed in a strike in the south of the country on Monday. The Israeli military announced that it had completed the “encirclement” of Bint Jbeil, a town in southern Lebanon where it is conducting a ground assault. Hezbollah retaliated with rocket fire on two Israeli border towns.

Talks between Lebanese and Israeli representatives are scheduled for Tuesday in Washington. But how do you negotiate peace with a counterpart who refuses to consider your territory part of the conflict while conducting daily military operations there?

400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium

Trump asserts that the “central issue” is nuclear power. Iran possesses more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium at 60%—a threshold that, according to experts, puts Tehran just weeks away from nuclear weapons capability if the political decision were made. On Monday, Russia reiterated its proposal to store this uranium on its territory as part of a peace agreement.

This proposal has the merit of simply existing. And the drawback of entrusting the uranium of one country at war to another country at war.

The Real Calculus Behind the Blockade

The New York-based Soufan Center offers the clearest analysis: Trump’s intention is to deprive Iran of its export revenues and force China to pressure Tehran to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The goal is to use Beijing’s dependence on oil as leverage.

The problem with this strategy is that it assumes China will agree to play the role Washington assigns it. Yet Beijing has its own calculations. Its own alliances. Its own strategic reserves. Treating the world’s second-largest economy as a mere diplomatic subcontractor stems either from spectacular overconfidence or complete blindness.

Truth Social is not a command center

There is something deeply disturbing about the way U.S. defense policy is now being conducted through posts on a social media platform. “BLOCKADE.” “DESTROYED.” Words in all caps that send markets soaring, terrorize the Iranian civilian population, and commit the world’s leading military power to promises that reality will eventually have to fulfill.

Because a naval blockade is not a tweet. It is an act of war under international law. It is an operation that mobilizes carrier strike groups, submarines, satellite surveillance systems, precise rules of engagement, and calibrated escalation protocols. And yet, all of this is announced as if it were a real estate promotion—with capital letters and an exclamation point.

Contradiction as a Method of Governance

Let’s return to the heart of the absurdity. Last week: the Iranian navy was destroyed. This week: a massive blockade is needed to prevent the Iranian navy from acting. This isn’t a nuance. It isn’t an evolution of the situation. It’s a head-on contradiction that no one in the U.S. administration is bothering to resolve.

Because consistency isn’t the goal. The goal is the immediate effect. Today’s headline. The markets’ reaction. The sense of power projected onto a phone screen. That Tuesday’s facts contradict Monday’s is irrelevant if no one reads both in the same sentence.

The Real Losers in This Escalation

Oil prices are skyrocketing. Global markets are plunging back into uncertainty. The most vulnerable economies—those that depend on oil and gas imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz—are bearing the brunt of the crisis without having had a say in the matter. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and even Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator: entire nations held hostage by a standoff between Washington and Tehran.

And Iranian civilians, of course. A port blockade doesn’t just affect oil exports. It affects imports of medicine, food, and spare parts for civilian infrastructure. The history of sanctions and blockades is unambiguous on this point: it is always the people who pay the price first.

April 22 is approaching

In nine days, the ceasefire expires. Nine days. And instead of seriously negotiating the terms of its renewal, both sides are erecting blockades, issuing threats in all caps, and outsourcing diplomacy to mediators who have neither the means nor the authority to enforce anything.

If the ceasefire collapses on April 22, what resumes will not be an “escalation.” It will be the second phase of a war whose first phase has already killed 6,000 people in six weeks.

Netanyahu’s Unintentional Admission

Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that it was Washington that derailed the talks—not Tehran. Trump’s most ardent ally in this war has just stated, publicly, that responsibility for the diplomatic impasse lies with the American side. This statement should be making headlines in newspapers around the world. It’s buried amid press releases because the truth, when it comes from the wrong mouth, goes unheard.

The “central issue” for Trump is the nuclear program, Netanyahu adds. Translation: the blockade is not a response to the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade is a tool to pressure Iran into nuclear disarmament. The stated goal—freedom of navigation—is a smokescreen. The real goal is Tehran’s capitulation on the nuclear issue.

What Russia Is Offering—and What It Reveals

Moscow is offering to take in the 400 kg of Iranian enriched uranium. Russia—a country under international sanctions, embroiled in its own war in Ukraine, and a tactical ally of Tehran—is positioning itself as the guardian of nonproliferation. The irony would be comical if the stakes weren’t nuclear in the literal sense of the term.

But this proposal exists. And it has the merit of raising the only question that matters: Is there a concrete arrangement that would allow Iran to give up its enriched uranium without losing face, and the United States to lift the blockade without admitting failure? For now, the answer is no. Because, in this conflict, saving face is worth more than lives.

The Forgotten War Within the War

While the world’s attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the Israeli army is encircling Bint Jbeil. This town in southern Lebanon, a symbol of Hezbollah’s resistance since 2006, is now caught in a military stranglehold. Four civilians were killed in an airstrike on Monday. These deaths no longer even make the headlines.

Israel claims that Lebanon “is not included in the ceasefire.” This position would allow it to wage a large-scale ground war while claiming technical compliance with a truce that covers only the Iranian front. International law has a name for this. Diplomacy has another. The Lebanese people, for their part, have the right word for it: abandonment.

Tuesday’s talks in Washington

Lebanese and Israeli representatives are set to meet on Tuesday in Washington. To negotiate what, exactly? A separate ceasefire? Terms of withdrawal? The details of a “humanitarian” encirclement of Bint Jbeil? When one side is negotiating with tanks at the gates of the other’s city, the word “talks” loses all meaning.

What Is Real, What Is Not

Real: 6,000 deaths in six weeks. Real: a ceasefire set to expire in nine days with no guarantee it will be renewed. Real: European allies refusing to endorse the blockade. Real: oil prices skyrocketing with every presidential tweet. Real: Iranian and Lebanese civilians dying while those responsible for their fate trade barbs in press releases.

Not real: the total destruction of the Iranian navy announced last week. Not real, since a blockade is needed this week to protect against it. And yet, both versions coexist in the same news cycle, spoken by the same person, just a few days apart, without anyone asking: wait—which one is true?

Memory as an Act of Resistance

Remembering what was said on Tuesday when reading what was said on Monday. That’s all it takes. Not geopolitical expertise. Not access to classified intelligence. Just a functioning memory and the refusal to let it reset with every new news cycle.

Trump can block Iranian ports. He can issue threats in all caps. He can send destroyers to the Strait of Hormuz. But he cannot destroy the same fleet twice. And it is in this gap—between Tuesday’s bragging and Monday’s threat—that the whole truth of this war lies.

The Countdown That No One Can Control

On April 22, the ceasefire expires. Ankara, Islamabad, and Cairo are trying to maintain a diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran. But every blockade, every strike in Lebanon, every all-caps post on Truth Social narrows the space for negotiation. You don’t build peace by shutting the doors one by one.

6,000 families are already waiting for answers they will never receive. In nine days, that number will either be frozen or mark the beginning of a far more terrible countdown. And the man who promised to destroy ships that have already been destroyed has, so far, offered the world only one certainty: his word is not worth the social media platform on which he posts it.

Signed, Jacques PJ Provost