COLUMN: Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Plummeting, and No One Seems Surprised

Six Measures, Six Failures

The Pew Research Center took the analysis a step further by assessing Americans’ confidence in six essential qualities of a president. The results are damning. When it comes to his leadership skills, only 34% of Americans have a great deal or a lot of confidence in him, while 51% express little or no confidence. When it comes to his mental health, the numbers are even harsher: 52% do not trust him. His physical health? 50% express distrust. But it is on the issue of ethics that the problem is most acute. Only 21% of Americans believe he acts ethically, compared to 60% who do not believe this at all. His ability to uphold the country’s democratic values? Only 25% trust him. His talent for choosing good advisors? The same dismal score: 25%.

These figures send a chill down my spine. Because they don’t just speak to an unpopular president. They speak to a man whom no one believes in anymore. About anything. Not his judgment, not his integrity, not even his ability to lead. It’s a total failure. A moral and political bankruptcy. And the most terrifying thing is that even his own supporters are beginning to have doubts.

When the Camp Begins to Crumble

The most telling aspect of this debacle is the erosion of support within the Republican camp itself. In February 2025, at the start of his second term, 55% of Republicans said they had confidence in Trump’s ethics. Today, that figure has dropped to just 42%. That’s a 13-point drop in one year. When it comes to respect for democratic values, the decline is just as steep: from 60% to 52%. Regarding his mental health, Republican confidence has fallen from 75% to 66%. Even his most loyal supporters are beginning to waver. Support for his policies and plans is also collapsing. Last year, 67% of Republicans supported all or most of his agenda. Today, that figure has dropped to 56%. An 11-point plunge that speaks volumes about the growing disillusionment.

Watching Republicans abandon Trump is like watching a ship slowly sink. The rats are abandoning ship, one by one. Not out of cowardice, but out of clear-eyed realism. They’ve realized that the man they once put on a pedestal might not be the savior they’d hoped for. And this realization, however belated it may be, gives me a glimmer of hope. Perhaps reason always prevails in the end.

Government Shutdown, Tariffs, and Military Deployments

This precipitous decline didn’t come out of nowhere. It is the result of a tumultuous year marked by controversial decisions and repeated crises. The prolonged government shutdown paralyzed the federal administration for weeks, leaving hundreds of thousands of federal employees without pay. The massive tariffs imposed by Trump drove up prices for American consumers, fueling already rampant inflation. The deployment of U.S. troops to several cities across the country for immigration operations shocked a segment of the public. Drastic budget cuts implemented by the new Department of Government Efficiency have eliminated thousands of federal jobs. And then there were the tragedies that left a lasting impression: the death of Renee Good, killed by an immigration agent, and that of Alex Pretti, shot by the Border Patrol in Minneapolis.

Every decision, every crisis, every preventable death adds another brick to the wall of disapproval. Trump governs as if he were still on the campaign trail, relying on executive orders and provocations. But governing isn’t about tweeting. It’s about taking care of people. It’s about protecting, not dividing. And on this point, it must be acknowledged that he has failed. Miserably.

Worse Than Expected for Half of Americans

A Pew Research Center survey reveals another devastating figure: 50% of Americans believe the Trump administration’s actions have been worse than they expected. Only 21% think they’ve been better—a ratio of more than two to one. This widespread disappointment cuts across all segments of the population. Democrats, of course, are the most critical, with 87% of them supporting only a minority or none of Trump’s policies. But even among independents, skepticism prevails. Only 27% of Americans overall support all or most of his plans, down from 35% a year ago. Confidence is eroding, support is crumbling, and hope is fading. Forty-seven percent of Americans now believe that Trump will be a failure as president in the long run—a 14-point increase from last year.

When half a country says its president is doing worse than expected, it’s no longer just a crisis of popularity. It’s a massive rejection. A collective condemnation. And the saddest part is that many of those saying this today are the very same people who voted for him. They believed in his promises. They hoped for change. They’ve ended up with a nightmare.

When the Party Breaks Free from the President

Another telling sign of Trump’s waning influence: the shift in Republicans’ views on their obligation to support the president. Today, only 38% of Republicans and Republican sympathizers believe that Republican members of Congress have an obligation to support Trump’s policies simply because he is a Republican president. Conversely, 61% believe that GOP lawmakers have no such obligation if they disagree with him. This figure is up from last year, when 55% shared this view. This shift marks a significant turning point. Republicans are giving themselves permission to criticize, oppose, and distance themselves. The cult of personality is crumbling. Blind loyalty is giving way to a form of political pragmatism. Republican lawmakers sense the tide turning and are beginning to distance themselves from a president who is becoming increasingly toxic electorally.

This liberation from the Trumpist yoke fascinates me as much as it relieves me. For years, criticizing Trump within the Republican Party was political suicide. Today, it has almost become a matter of survival. Republicans are rediscovering that they can think for themselves. That they can say no. And that may be the beginning of a rebirth for a party that had lost its way in idolatry.

The Opposition Is Becoming More Radical in the Face of Failure

On the Democratic side, the strategy is hardening. 82% of Democrats now want their leaders in Congress to firmly oppose Trump, even if that makes it harder to solve the country’s problems. This figure is up 12 points from last year, when 70% shared this view. This radicalization of the opposition reflects growing frustration with Trump’s policies and a refusal to compromise any further. Democrats have realized that cooperation with Trump leads nowhere and that resistance has become the only viable option. On the Republican side, 61% want Trump to stand up to Democratic leaders, a figure that has remained stable compared to last year. But this apparent symmetry hides a different reality: Democrats are becoming more radical in their opposition, while Republicans are simply maintaining their position without intensifying it.

This growing polarization terrifies me. Because it means the country is becoming even more divided. That dialogue is becoming impossible. That each side is digging in on its positions. And meanwhile, the real problems facing Americans—the cost of living, access to healthcare, education—remain unaddressed. That is the true tragedy of this presidency: it has turned politics into a tribal war.

A Consensus Amid Diverse Polling Numbers

Despite methodological differences among the various polling organizations, a consensus is emerging: Trump is in trouble. Civiqs puts his approval rating at 39% versus 56% disapproval. Quantus Insights reports 43% versus 52%. Emerson College confirms this with 43% versus 51%. Even Nate Silver, the renowned political analyst, in his Silver Bulletin, puts the figures at 41% approval versus 56%disapproval. These variations of a few points, depending on methodology, do not alter the overall picture: Trump is in the red. His disapproval rating consistently exceeds 50%, while his approval rating hovers in the high 30s or low 40s. No polling firm—not even those most favorable to Republicans—manages to push him above the symbolic 50%threshold. This convergence of data, despite methodological differences, reinforces the credibility of the assessment: the Trump presidency is in deep crisis.

What strikes me about this avalanche of numbers is their consistency. No matter who asks the question, no matter how it is asked, the answer is the same: Americans no longer trust Trump. It is a final verdict. A unanimous condemnation. And in the face of this reality, all the denials in the world will change nothing.

Heading into the midterm elections

As the midterm elections approach, these disastrous polls for Trump paint a volatile political landscape. Republicans, who must defend their seats in Congress, find themselves in a delicate position: align with an unpopular president or distance themselves at the risk of alienating his electoral base. Democrats, galvanized by these numbers, see an opportunity to regain control of Congress. But beyond political calculations, these polls reveal a deeper truth: America is tired. Tired of chaos, controversies, and lies. It longs for something else. It longs for stable, predictable, reassuring leadership. Trump, with his impulsive style and erratic decisions, embodies the exact opposite. The numbers don’t lie. They tell the story of a nation that has lost confidence in its president. And in a democracy, when the people withdraw their confidence, there isn’t much left.

I end this column with a strange feeling. No triumphalism. No satisfaction. Just a sense of melancholy in the face of this monumental mess. Trump had a chance to make a positive mark on history. He had the power, the support, the resources. He squandered it all—out of pride, incompetence, and blindness. And today, he finds himself alone, abandoned even by his own people, facing a country that no longer wants him. It’s tragic. Truly tragic. Because behind this personal failure lies the failure of a system that allowed such a man to rise to the highest office. And that should give us all pause for thought.

Signed, Jacques Provost