COLUMN: When Trump Begs for Recognition: The Downfall of a President on the Campaign Trail

The Numbers Don’t Lie

With ten months to go before the midterm elections, the polls paint an unambiguous picture: Trump’s popularity has plummeted in most U.S. states. According to The Economist’s poll aggregator, Trump’s net approval rating in the seven swing states that secured his victory in 2024 averages -16.6%. In Texas, a Republican stronghold since 1980, 56% of voters disapprove of his agenda, compared with just 39% who approve, for a net rating of -17.2%. The twelve states where Trump still has a positive approval rating account for only 68 electoral votes out of 538 and about 10% of the total population. Even more telling: there is only one place where Trump’s approval rating exceeds his 2024 results, and that is the District of Columbia, home to the nation’s capital. This anomaly can be explained by the influx of Republicans who came to work in the Trump administration. Everywhere else, it’s a rout. Non-white voters and young people aged 18 to 29, who had helped secure his victory, are turning their backs on him. New York Times polls show that Trump has lost the support of these key demographic groups. And that’s not all: Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives currently enjoy a five-point lead over Republican candidates nationwide.

These figures send a chill down my spine. Not because I support or oppose Trump, but because they reveal something profound about the state of American democracy. A president elected just over a year ago is already being rejected by a majority of Americans. His agenda, his methods, his rhetoric… everything is being challenged. And what is he doing? He keeps plowing ahead, issuing a barrage of executive orders, proclamations, and sensational statements. As if he hoped that the sheer volume of his actions would make up for their unpopularity. But it’s not working. Voters aren’t fooled.

A Democratic stronghold that Trump dreams of conquering

Maine represents a particular obsession for Trump. This New England state has voted Democratic in the last nine presidential elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris beat Trump by seven points there. Yet Trump persists in believing he can flip the state in his favor. Hence his focus on the issue of lobster fishing and commercial fishing in general. He systematically links his support for fishing rights in the marine monument to Maine fishermen, even though the protected area is located southeast of Cape Cod, far from the waters where most Maine lobster fishermen operate. This geographical confusion is not insignificant. It reveals either a lack of understanding of the issue or a deliberate attempt to manipulate voters into believing that this proclamation directly affects them. Commercial fishing groups, on the other hand, have welcomed the decision. John Williams, president of the Atlantic Red Crab Company in New Bedford, Massachusetts, stated: “We deserve to be rewarded, not penalized. We are proving that we can fish sustainably. ” But these voices of support are not enough to mask the reality: Maine remains a Democratic state, and there is no indication that this proclamation will change the outcome.

There is something tragic about this stubbornness. Trump clings to the idea that he can win Maine, that he can win over voters who have never truly supported him. And for that, he’s willing to do anything—including sacrificing marine protected areas, ignoring warnings from environmentalists, and endangering fragile ecosystems. All of this for what? For a few hypothetical votes? To be able to brag about having conquered a Democratic state? It’s ridiculous. And dangerous.

When History Repeats Itself

The November 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the Trump administration. Historically, the party that won the presidential election has consistently lost the last five midterm elections. This strong trend suggests that the Democrats could regain control of both houses of Congress, which would significantly limit Trump’s room to maneuver. The House of Representatives will be entirely up for election, and current polls show Democratic candidates with a five-point lead. In the Senate, several Republican seats are at risk, particularly in states where Trump’s popularity has plummeted. Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, could swing the other way. Maine, on which Trump is pinning so much hope, remains out of reach. And in the swing states that secured his victory in 2024, voters are overwhelmingly expressing their disapproval. Trump knows this. His team knows this. That is why the White House has undertaken several efforts aimed at laying the groundwork for a potential challenge to the results. Activists who had supported the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results have been appointed to key positions overseeing elections at the federal level. Attorney General Pam Bondi has filed lawsuits against 24 states that refused to share their election data. The Department of Justice is attempting to build the largest federal election database in the country’s history.

And there you have it. We always come back to this: Trump’s obsession with elections, with the results, with control. He cannot accept defeat. He cannot conceive of voters rejecting him. So he’s already laying the groundwork to challenge the results in November. He’s positioning his pieces on the chessboard. He’s appointing his loyalists to strategic posts. He’s suing states that refuse to cooperate. What’s the point of all this? So he can cry “fraud” if the Republicans lose? So he can claim the election was rigged? It’s a scenario we’ve seen before. And it terrifies me.

A Legal Battle Looms

Trump’s decision to reopen the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument to commercial fishing has sparked an outcry among environmental groups. Gib Brogan, fisheries campaign director at Oceana, said, “The Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument was created to provide strong protection for the rich diversity of marine life that inhabits these unique habitats.” ” Several organizations have vowed to challenge the decision in court. This wouldn’t be the first time. Last year, environmentalists challenged a Trump decision that removed key protections from the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument off the coast of Hawaii. In August, a judge banned commercial fishing in that area. Legal precedents suggest the battle will be long and uncertain. But for Trump, that doesn’t matter. What matters is the political message he’s sending: I’m on the side of fishermen, not environmentalists. I prioritize the economy over the environment. I stand up for workers against environmental elites. It’s a well-rehearsed, tried-and-true narrative that has proven effective with his electoral base. But will it be enough to reverse the trend in the polls? Nothing is less certain.

This pitting of the economy against the environment wears me out. As if the two were incompatible. As if protecting the oceans necessarily meant sacrificing jobs. It’s a false debate, a false dichotomy that Trump exploits to the fullest. And it works. It works because it’s simple, because it’s binary, because it allows him to point the finger at culprits. Environmentalists are cast as the enemies of workers. Democrats are cast as the enemies of the economy. And Trump positions himself as the savior. But at what cost?

As Trump Begins to Craft His Narrative of Defeat

On January 28, 2026, the FBI raided an election center in Fulton County, Georgia, searching for documents related to the 2020 election. The presence of Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, particularly surprised Democrats. Senator Mark Warner asked her to clarify under what authority she had attended the operation. The next day, Trump shared a post on Truth Social claiming that Italian officials had “used military satellites to help hack U.S. voting machines, transferring votes from Trump to Biden using tools developed by the CIA.” These conspiracy theories, as far-fetched as they may be, are part of a deliberate strategy. Trump is already laying the groundwork to contest the midterm election results if the Republicans lose. He is establishing the narrative of election fraud. He is sowing doubt in the minds of his supporters. He is creating the conditions for a massive challenge to the results. And he is doing so with the full apparatus of the state at his disposal. The FBI, the Department of Justice, national intelligence agencies… all are being mobilized to serve this strategy. It is an authoritarian drift that dares not speak its name. An attempt to nationalize elections, to place them under federal control, even though the U.S. Constitution entrusts this responsibility to the states.

I don’t know what shocks me the most. The delusional conspiracy theories? The use of federal agencies for political ends? Or the fact that all of this is happening in broad daylight, with no one seeming able to stop it? Trump isn’t even hiding anymore. He’s announcing his intentions. He’s preparing his challenge. He’s crafting his narrative. And meanwhile, America’s democratic institutions are faltering. The safeguards are crumbling. The checks and balances are weakening. It’s dizzying.

When Polls Are No Longer Enough

Trump finds himself in a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, his popularity is plummeting. Polls show that voters disapprove of his agenda on immigration, the economy, trade, and inflation. Demographic groups that had supported him in 2024 are turning their backs on him. Swing states are rejecting him. On the other hand, he retains considerable power. He controls the executive branch. He appoints judges, prosecutors, and agency directors. He signs decrees, proclamations, and executive orders. He mobilizes the FBI, the Department of Justice, and national intelligence agencies. He shapes the media narrative through Truth Social and his allies in the conservative media. This dissonance between unpopularity and power creates an unstable and dangerous situation: a president rejected by a majority of Americans but who has all the levers of state power at his disposal to impose his will. A president who knows he will likely lose the midterms but is already preparing to contest the results. A president who begs for voters’ recognition while simultaneously laying the groundwork to challenge the election results. It is this contradiction that makes the situation so explosive.

We are facing something new. A president who governs against the will of the majority. Who uses his power not to unite, but to divide. Not to serve, but to cling to power. And the most troubling thing is that it’s working. Despite his unpopularity, despite the disastrous polls, despite the massive rejection of his agenda, Trump carries on. He pushes forward. He imposes his will. He never backs down. And this determination, as disturbing as it may be, commands a certain kind of respect. Or rather, astonishment.

When Trump Fishes in Troubled Waters

There is something deeply symbolic about Trump’s choice of commercial fishing as his flagship issue in his bid to win back Maine and New England. Fishing is an age-old, traditional activity that evokes manual labor, physical exertion, and the struggle against the elements. It is also a declining industry, threatened by overfishing, global warming, and environmental regulations. By positioning himself as the defender of fishermen against “burdensome and unnecessary restrictions,” Trump is playing on several fronts. He presents himself as the champion of forgotten workers—those whom urban and environmental elites look down upon. He pits common sense against environmentalist whims. He promises a return to a mythical golden age when fishermen could work freely without being hindered by bureaucrats in Washington. But this rhetoric clashes with a stubborn reality: Maine’s fishermen aren’t fooled. They know that the marine protected area Trump is reopening lies far from their usual fishing grounds. They know that the real threats to their industry are global warming, industrial overfishing, and ocean pollution. And above all, they know that Trump doesn’t really care about them. What he wants is their vote. Nothing more.

This exploitation of fishermen makes me uncomfortable. Trump is using them as pawns in his political game. He’s making promises he won’t keep. He’s selling them a narrative that doesn’t match reality. And the worst part is that he’s doing it knowingly. He knows Maine won’t swing his way. He knows his proclamation won’t change a thing. But he keeps going. Because he has to give the impression that he’s taking action. Because he has to feed his narrative of a president who fights for workers. Even if it’s all hot air. Even if it’s just theater. Even if it’s a lie.

When Pleading Replaces Victory

“Please remember I did this for you.” These words from Trump ring like an admission of failure. A president who has to beg his voters to remember him, to give him credit, to vote for his party… that’s a president in a position of weakness. A president who feels power slipping away from him. A president who knows that the November midterms could mark the beginning of the end for his political agenda. The proclamation on commercial fishing, presented as a “BIG VICTORY,” is in reality nothing more than a desperate PR stunt. A pathetic attempt to buy votes in a region that has never truly supported him. A transparent political maneuver that fools no one. And meanwhile, the numbers speak for themselves. Trump’s popularity is plummeting. The Democrats are gaining ground in the polls. Voters who supported him in 2024 are turning their backs on him. Swing states are rejecting him. Texas is wavering. Maine remains out of reach. Faced with this impending debacle, Trump is already preparing his challenge. He is positioning his pieces on the chessboard. He’s appointing his loyalists to strategic positions. He’s taking legal action against recalcitrant states. He’s pushing the narrative of election fraud. Because deep down, he cannot accept defeat. He cannot conceive of Americans rejecting him. So he’d rather destroy confidence in the electoral system than acknowledge his failure.

I watch all this and wonder: where are we headed? How far is Trump willing to go to stay in power? How long can American institutions hold out? How long will voters tolerate this slide toward authoritarianism? These questions haunt me. Because the answers aren’t obvious. Because nothing is decided yet. Because November 2026 could be a historic turning point. Or a point of no return. And this uncertainty, this tension, this waiting… it’s unbearable. We’re on the edge of the precipice. And Trump, instead of backing down, keeps moving forward. With his eyes closed. Or wide open. I don’t know anymore.

Signed, Jacques Provost