Iran Threatens to Retaliate and Promises Speed Trials: The Powder Keg Is Igniting

Iran’s Military Capabilities

Iran is not the Iraq of 2003. Nor is it the Libya of 2011. It is a regional military power capable of inflicting massive damage. The country possesses ballistic missiles with a range of over 2,000 kilometers—enough to strike Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia. Shahab-3 missiles can carry powerful conventional warheads. Shahed drones—which have been seen wreaking havoc in Ukraine—can be launched by the hundreds to overwhelm defenses and strike infrastructure. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has 190,000 elite soldiers. The Quds Force, its foreign operations branch, has agents throughout the Middle East—trained, motivated, and ready.

And then there are the proxies. Hezbollah in Lebanon possesses more than 150,000 rockets, according to Israeli estimates—enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome. Shiite militias in Iraq have attacked U.S. bases in the past. The Houthis in Yemen can block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial chokepoint for maritime trade. If Iran gives the order, all these actors can strike simultaneously. A multi-front war. The United States would find itself defending bases in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Israel under a barrage of rockets. Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities would be targeted. This isn’t science fiction. It’s Iran’s war plan. Well-documented. Studied by all military analysts. And if Trump strikes Iran, this plan could be activated—with all the consequences that entails.

Do you know what terrifies me the most? It’s not Iran’s military capability. It’s the fact that we seem to believe we can “control” a war. That we can carry out “surgical” strikes. That we can “limit” the damage. But wars can’t be controlled. They spiral out of control. They escalate. They kill far more people than we anticipated. And we’re not talking about some small country with no allies here. We’re talking about Iran. With proxies in seven countries. Missiles that can reach across the entire Middle East. Thousands of drones. If it starts—if it really starts—it won’t be a two-day operation. It will be a regional conflagration. And who will pay the price? Civilians. Always civilians.

The Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Weapon

Iran has a weapon that no one else possesses: control of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage—39 kilometers at its narrowest point—handles 21 million barrels of oil per day. That’s 30 percent of all oil transported by sea. If Iran closes this strait, the global economy will be thrown into turmoil. Oil prices will skyrocket. Inflation will soar. Supply chains will grind to a halt. And Iran can do it. With sea mines. Anti-ship missiles. Revolutionary Guard fast attack craft harassing oil tankers. Miniature submarines that are hard to detect. The regime has already threatened this several times in the past. Now, with an imminent U.S. attack, this threat becomes credible. Very credible.

The United States would send its navy to reopen the strait. Destroyers. Cruisers. Perhaps even an additional aircraft carrier. But that would take time. And in the meantime, the price per barrel could reach $150 or $200. Europe, dependent on Gulf oil, would be suffocating. Asia, too. A global recession would become a real possibility. And all because a regime, backed into a corner, decides to use its strategic geography as a weapon. This is the scenario that all analysts fear. The one no one really talks about. Because it’s too frightening. Too costly. Too unpredictable. But it’s also the one that could come to pass if things spiral out of control. If Trump strikes. If Iran retaliates. If the spiral of escalation begins. And no one—absolutely no one—can predict where it will end.

Washington’s Hesitant Allies

The United States is not alone. But its allies are nervous. Very nervous. Israel supports a heavy strike against Iran. The prime minister met with Trump. They discussed options. Targets. Timing. Israel even shared an assessment that 5,000 protesters had been killed—a figure far higher than public estimates. Why? To convince Trump to act. To justify an intervention. But other allies—the moderate Arabs, the Europeans—are advising caution. They say the regime isn’t weak enough yet. That a strike could rally Iranians behind the government. That we need to wait. Let the protests run their course. Then strike if truly necessary. But not now. Not like this.

Europe trembles at the thought of a new war in the Middle East. Oil prices. Inflation. Refugees. Instability. Everything they don’t want. France and Germany have discreetly made it known that they would prefer a diplomatic solution. The United Kingdom, more aligned with Washington, remains ambiguous. They are evacuating personnel from the base in Qatar—a sign that they expect something to happen—but publicly, they speak of “de-escalation” and “dialogue.” Russia and China are watching. Moscow has warned that any U.S. strike would be “a grave mistake.” Beijing speaks of “respecting Iranian sovereignty.” Both powers see an opportunity. If the United States gets bogged down in Iran, it frees up space for their own ambitions—Ukraine for Russia, Taiwan for China. This is the cynical geopolitical game being played out in the background.

And while the major powers are calculating, while allies are hesitating, while adversaries are taking their positions—people are dying. Right now. In Iranian prisons. On the streets of Tehran. Families waiting for news that will never come. Children growing up without their parents. Mothers mourning their sons. And what are we doing? We’re debating. We’re weighing our options. We’re assessing the “strategic costs.” As if this were some damn game of chess. But this isn’t a game. It’s the lives of millions of people. And every hour we waste hesitating is one more hour the regime has to massacre its own people. So what? Do we strike and risk setting the region ablaze? Do we do nothing and let the massacre continue? What’s the right answer? Because I, for one, don’t know anymore.

American public opinion is weary

Americans, for their part, are tired. Tired of endless wars. Tired of sending their children to die on the other side of the world. Tired of paying trillions for wars that never really end. The polls make this clear. 72% of Americans are concerned that the United States is “getting too involved” in foreign conflicts. 79% fear retaliation against American civilians if Trump strikes Iran. 60% don’t think the strikes make America safer. These are staggering numbers. Even among Republicans, support is lukewarm. Polls following the June 2025 strikes showed that only 44% of Republicans “strongly” supported the action. The rest were lukewarm. Hesitant. Skeptical.

Trump knows this. He’s built his brand on “America First.” On NOT acting as the world’s policeman. But now he’s considering another intervention. After Venezuela. After Iran in June. Conservative commentators who usually supported him—Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon—have criticized him. They say that’s not why they backed him. That it betrays his promises. If Trump strikes again—and harder this time—he risks alienating part of his base. But if he does nothing after all his threats, he’ll look weak. Powerless. That’s the trap he’s locked himself into. By tweeting. By threatening. By promising “help is on the way” to the protesters. Now he has to deliver. Or admit that it was all a bluff. And for Trump, admitting weakness is impossible. So he’ll probably strike. Even if public opinion isn’t enthusiastic. Even if allies are hesitant. Even if the consequences could be catastrophic. Because for him, projecting strength matters more than anything else.

The Decisive Hours

Here we are. On the brink. Iran promises to retaliate against any attack. It promises expedited trials for protesters. The United States is evacuating its bases. Positioning its forces. Trump has threatened. He’s made promises. He’s drawn red lines. Now, it’s time to act. Or back down. And everyone knows that backing down is unthinkable for Trump. So the strike will likely come. When? Maybe in the next few hours. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe in a week. But it will come. And when it comes, Iran will retaliate. That much is certain. The regime has said so. And it has the means to do so. So we’ll have a war. Not a small surgical operation. A WAR. With deaths. Destruction. Consequences that will ripple on for years. Decades, perhaps.

And in the meantime, the 10,000 prisoners await their summary trials. Families are searching for their missing loved ones. The Iranian people, who just wanted freedom, find themselves caught between a brutal regime that is massacring them and a foreign intervention that could set everything ablaze. That’s the tragedy. It’s that no matter what happens now, ordinary Iranians will pay the price. If Trump strikes, they’ll die under the bombs or in the retaliation. If Trump doesn’t strike, the regime will continue to massacre them in the shadows. There’s no good outcome. No magic solution. Just impossible choices. And terrifying consequences. The world is holding its breath. Families are praying. Generals are preparing their plans. Diplomats are making desperate last-ditch efforts. And the clock keeps ticking. Tick. Tock. Toward the inevitable. Toward the moment when everything changes. Toward war.

That’s what haunts me. These summary trials. These 10,000 people waiting. These families who don’t know if their loved ones are alive. These children—169 children—arrested for daring to dream of freedom. And I think of them. Of all of them. Of the Americans who may go to war without really knowing why. To the Iranian soldiers who will obey orders even if it sickens them. To the civilians on both sides who asked for none of this and yet will lose everything. To the protesters who believed the world would help them and now find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place. How many will die in the coming days? How many lives will be shattered? How many futures will be cut short? I don’t know. No one knows. But I know one thing: when it’s over, when the bombs have stopped falling, when the generals take stock and the politicians deliver their speeches, there will still be mothers mourning their children. Fathers still searching for answers. Entire families that will never be whole again. And that’s what remains. Not the strategies. Not the tactical victories. Just the pain. Infinite. Eternal. Unforgivable.