Iran: Trump Threatens, Tehran Backtracks — and Death Row Inmates Can Breathe a Sigh of Relief

The Strategy of Ambiguity

Trump has a method. He makes threats. But he never specifies exactly what he will do. This is intentional. Because if you say exactly what you’re going to do, your opponent can prepare for it. But if you remain vague, they have to imagine every possible scenario. And the imagination—especially when dealing with a paranoid regime like Tehran’s—can be terrifying.

When Trump says there will be military consequences if Iran executes the protesters, what does he mean? Strikes on nuclear sites? On Revolutionary Guard bases? On oil facilities? Or perhaps a covert operation to eliminate regime leaders? No one knows. Not even, probably, Trump himself. Because he’s winging it. He adjusts based on the reaction. But this uncertainty is his weapon.

The Risk of Escalation

But this strategy comes at a cost. Because threatening without acting eventually strips the threats of their credibility. If Trump threatens and Iran doesn’t back down, what does he do? If he doesn’t act, he loses face. If he does act, he risks a war. And a war with Iran is not like Iraq in 2003. Iran has resources. Missiles. Militias throughout the Middle East. The ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and send oil prices skyrocketing. A war with Iran is a quagmire whose outcome no one can predict.

So Trump is walking a tightrope. He’s making threats strong enough to be taken seriously—but not so strong as to box himself in. For now, it’s working. Iran has backed down. But how many times can he threaten before Tehran decides to stop listening? Or worse, to provoke him to see if Trump is bluffing?

This foreign policy based on intimidation makes me nervous. Because it relies entirely on credibility. And credibility is fragile. One misstep, one threat not backed up by action, and it all comes crashing down. But at the same time, I have to admit: for now, it’s working. Lives are being saved. Am I willing to accept this instability if it produces results? Honestly, I don’t know. It’s uncomfortable. But that’s the real question.

A Regime That Knows It Is Fragile

If Tehran has backed down, it’s not just because of Trump. It’s also because the regime is afraid—afraid of its own people. The protests of 2022–2023 were the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Millions of Iranians took to the streets, chanting slogans that no longer called for reforms but for the regime’s downfall. “Death to the dictator.” “Woman, life, freedom.” These cries echoed throughout the country—and terrified the mullahs.

The regime cracked down. Violently. But it knows it has won a battle, not the war. The anger is still there. So is the frustration. The economy is collapsing. U.S. sanctions are suffocating the country. Inflation is skyrocketing. Unemployment is soaring. And the young people—this generation that has known nothing but the mullahs’ regime—no longer believe in anything. They want to leave. Or they want the regime to fall. Both. If the regime had executed the condemned protesters, it risked reigniting the fuse. It risked provoking a new wave of protests. And this time, perhaps, losing control.

International Pressure

Trump isn’t the only one who has applied pressure. Europe has, too. The United Nations has, too. Human rights NGOs. Celebrities. Governments around the world have condemned the death sentences. They have called for clemency. They have threatened new sanctions. Taken individually, each of these appeals would have been ignored by Tehran. But collectively, they have created a climate of unbearable pressure.

Iran cannot afford to be completely isolated. It needs its trade relations. Its allies. Its ability to circumvent sanctions. And if the whole world treats it like a pariah state, things get complicated. So the regime does the math. What would executing these protesters achieve? A little more internal terror. But at the cost of even greater international isolation. Is it worth it? Apparently not.

This is where we see that international pressure, when coordinated, can work. Not always. Not easily. But sometimes. These lives saved are also the result of thousands of people who signed petitions, who protested in front of embassies, who refused to remain silent. It may seem insignificant. But it’s the accumulation of all these voices that ultimately makes a difference. Never underestimate the power of collective outrage.

A gesture of weakness disguised as clemency

Tehran is presenting this pardon as a gesture of humanity—proof of the regime’s magnanimity. But no one is fooled. If the regime were truly merciful, it would never have sentenced these protesters to death. It would never have tortured them. It would never have thrown them in prison for exercising their right to freedom of expression. This pardon is not an act of kindness. It is a political calculation—a tactical retreat in the face of pressure it could no longer ignore.

And this retreat reveals something important: the Iranian regime is not invincible. It can be pressured. It can be forced to change course. Not easily. Not often. But when the pressure is strong enough, it yields. And that is a lesson for all those who think there is nothing we can do in the face of dictatorships. We can. It takes coordination. Perseverance. Determination. But we can.

The Prisoners Who Remain

But let’s not fool ourselves. This pardon applies to only a handful of death row inmates. There are still thousands of political prisoners in Iran. Journalists. Lawyers. Human rights activists. Women who refused to wear the veil. Labor unionists. Students. All crammed into squalid prisons. All tortured. All forgotten. The pardon of those on death row is a victory. But a tiny victory in an ocean of injustice.

And then there are those who have already been executed. Those whose families will never experience the relief that the families of those pardoned this week have felt. Those who died for nothing. For daring to dream of a free Iran. For daring to believe that their lives could be different. We cannot bring them back to life. All we can do is remember them. And keep fighting so that their deaths are not in vain.

I think of all those who are still behind bars. Of those who may be reading the news of this pardon and wondering: what about me? When will it be my turn? How much longer will I have to languish here? This pardon, as important as it is, must not make us forget all the others. It must not lead us to believe that the Iranian regime has become merciful. It has not. It has merely backed down on one issue because it had no choice. But the struggle continues.

While Trump Issues Threats, Europe Dithers

While Trump was threatening Iran with military action, what was Europe doing? Issuing statements. Releasing press releases. Calling for restraint. Issuing firm but measured condemnations. In short, the bare minimum. No concrete threats. No significant additional sanctions. Just words. Always and forever, just words.

And that raises an uncomfortable question: Are words enough? In this specific case, probably not. If Trump hadn’t applied pressure, if the United States hadn’t threatened to take action, would Iran have pardoned those prisoners? Frankly, I doubt it. European statements are important. They maintain moral pressure. But without the American threat, they would have been ignored. As usual.

The Cost of Soft Diplomacy

Europe has its own approach. It prefers diplomacy to confrontation. Dialogue over conflict. And in principle, that’s admirable. It’s civilized. It’s responsible. But when faced with regimes that respect nothing and no one, does it work? Rarely. Because these regimes understand only one thing: the balance of power. And Europe, all too often, refuses to play that game.

The result: it becomes a bystander. It comments. It laments. It condemns. But it changes nothing. And in the meantime, people are dying. Protesters are being executed. Human rights are being trampled underfoot. And Europe watches, telling itself that at least it has stayed true to its principles. But what good are principles if we don’t have the courage to defend them in any way other than with words?

I am European. And I would like to be proud of Europe’s stance on these issues. But I cannot. Because all too often, we hide behind diplomacy to justify our inaction. We’d rather not rock the boat, not provoke, not take risks. And in the meantime, it’s the Americans who are doing the dirty work. Who are making threats. Who are taking the risks. And who, sometimes, get results. It’s frustrating. Because Europe could do so much more. But it doesn’t.

The Fragility of a Victory

So yes, lives are being saved. That is a victory. But it is a fragile victory. Because the Iranian regime has not changed. It has merely backed down temporarily. Tomorrow, if the pressure eases, it could reverse this decision. It could arrest other protesters. Sentence them to death. And start all over again. Because that is its nature. That is its method. Terror is its tool of governance.

And then there’s Trump. How long will he continue to threaten Iran? How long before he gets tired of it and moves on to something else? Because Trump has a short memory. His priorities change from one week to the next. Today, it’s Iran. Tomorrow, it’ll be China or Mexico or something else entirely. And when Iran is no longer on his radar, what will happen to the remaining prisoners?

The struggle continues

This pardon isn’t the end. It’s a step. A small victory in a long war. Because the fight for a free Iran has only just begun. The protesters haven’t given up. They’re waiting. They’re preparing. They know the regime is fragile. That it’s held together only by force and fear. And that sooner or later, fear alone won’t be enough.

In the meantime, every life saved counts. Every prisoner freed counts. Every small setback for the regime counts. Because it is the accumulation of these small victories that will one day bring down the system. We’re not there yet. Far from it. But we’re moving forward. Slowly. Painfully. But we’re moving forward.

I don’t know how this will end. No one does. But I know one thing: the Iranians fighting for their freedom deserve our support. Not just our words. Our concrete support. Our sanctions against the regime. Our refusal to do business with it. Our diplomatic pressure. And yes, sometimes, our military threats. Because when faced with a regime that doesn’t hesitate to kill its own people, kindness isn’t enough. It takes strength. And it takes determination.

When the World Looks the Other Way

For months, the protests in Iran made headlines. Then, little by little, they disappeared from the news. Because other crises arose. The war in Ukraine. Tensions with China. Elections in Europe. And Iran has once again fallen into media oblivion. But over there, nothing has changed. People continue to suffer. The regime continues to crack down. Prisons continue to fill up.

And that’s the problem. Our collective attention is limited. We can’t keep track of everything. We can’t remember everything. So we move from one crisis to the next. And those who remain trapped in forgotten crises suffer in silence. Because no one is watching anymore. Because no one is talking about them anymore. And authoritarian regimes love that. They just wait for the world to grow weary. And then they resume their practices.

The Responsibility Not to Forget

It’s our responsibility. It’s up to us, who are fortunate enough to live in safety. To not forget. To keep talking about Iran. About Afghanistan. About Myanmar. About all those places where people are fighting for rights we take for granted. Because our attention, as trivial as it may seem, carries weight. It keeps the pressure on. It reminds authoritarian regimes that the world is watching them.

So no, let’s not forget Iran. Let’s not forget those pardoned protesters. Let’s not forget those who remain in prison. Let’s not forget those who have been executed. Because to forget them is to betray them. It’s telling their executioners that they can keep going. That no one will stop them. And we simply cannot allow that to happen.

How many times have I read a terrible story, felt anger and sadness, only to forget it a few days later? How many times have I promised not to forget, only to forget anyway? We’re all like that. Life goes on. Our daily problems catch up with us. And distant tragedies fade from view. But we have to fight against that. We have to force ourselves to remember. Because for those living through these tragedies, it’s not something far away. It’s their reality. Every day.

When Intimidation Saves Lives

Let’s get back to Trump. As controversial as he may be, he did something few Western leaders dare to do: he issued a clear threat. Not with diplomatic euphemisms. Not with convoluted phrasing. He said: if you do that, we’ll strike you. Period. And it worked. Not because Iran likes Trump. On the contrary. But because Iran fears him.

And that raises an unsettling question: Should we issue threats more often? Has soft diplomacy—with its measured statements and calls for restraint—become ineffective against brutal regimes? Do we sometimes need to wield the stick rather than offer the carrot? I don’t have a definitive answer. But this specific case suggests that yes, sometimes, threats work.

The Limits of This Approach

But be careful. This strategy has its limits. You can’t solve everything through threats. Because if you threaten all the time, over everything, threats lose their credibility. And if you’re forced to follow through on your threats, you end up at war. And war, even when you win it, always comes at an enormous human and economic cost.

So you have to strike a balance. Choose your battles. Know when to threaten and when to engage in dialogue. We need to know when to push forward and when to back down. It’s a delicate balance. And Trump, frankly, isn’t known for his subtlety. He charges ahead. He makes threats. And sometimes, it works. But one day, it won’t work. And then we’ll see if he has the courage to face the consequences. Or if it was all just a bluff.

I’m torn. Part of me hates this policy of threats. It’s dangerous. It’s unpredictable. It can escalate into war. But another part of me looks at the results and thinks: lives have been saved. And that’s no small thing. So maybe the real lesson is that there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. That we have to adapt. That with some regimes, a gentle approach works. And with others, we need firmness. Or even threats. It’s uncomfortable. But that’s the reality of the world we live in.

A Fragile Respite

On January 15, 2026, Iranian families breathed a sigh of relief. Their sons, brothers, and husbands will not be executed. For now. Because nothing is final. Nothing is guaranteed. The Iranian regime could change its mind. International pressure could fade. Trump could move on to other things. And then, what will happen?

But today, right now, men who thought they’d never see the sun again are breathing freely. They pace their cells knowing there will be a tomorrow. And that is precious. Even if it’s fragile. Even if it’s temporary. Because every day gained is one more day to hope. To fight. To believe that things can change.

The Call to Stay Vigilant

So let’s not let our guard down. Let’s not slip back into indifference. Iran is still a brutal dictatorship. Political prisoners are still being tortured. Women are still being oppressed. Protesters are still being hunted down. This pardon is a step. A small step. But thousands more are needed before Iran is free.

And for that, we need pressure. Constant. Relentless. From governments. From civil society. From the media. From all of us. Because authoritarian regimes only change when they have no other choice. And they have no other choice only when the pressure becomes unbearable. So let’s keep up this pressure. For those who have been pardoned. For the prisoners. For all Iranians who dream of a free country.

This story leaves me with a strange feeling. Relief, yes. Hope, a little. But also a lingering bitterness. Because lives should never have been in danger. These protesters should never have been convicted. Their families should never have had to endure this terror. And now, we’re celebrating a pardon as if it were a victory. But the real victory will come on the day when there’s no longer any need for pardons. Because there will be no more unjust convictions. The day when Iran is free. On that day, I’ll truly be able to rejoice. Until then, I remain vigilant. Wary. And determined.

I am not a journalist, but a columnist. I am an analyst, an observer of the geopolitical dynamics and international tensions that shape our world. My work consists of dissecting political strategies, understanding diplomatic maneuvers, and analyzing the balance of power between nations. I do not claim to possess the cold objectivity of traditional journalism. I strive for clarity, sincere analysis, and a deep understanding of the human issues underlying every political decision.

This text respects the fundamental distinction between verified facts and interpretive commentary. The factual information presented in this article comes from official and verifiable sources, including statements by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi regarding the pardon of those sentenced to death, Donald Trump’s public threats on social media and during press briefings, as well as reports from recognized international news agencies such as NBC News, Reuters, the Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse.

The analyses and interpretations presented here constitute a critical synthesis based on the available information. My role is to interpret these facts, contextualize them, and give them human meaning. Any subsequent developments in the situation in Iran or in Iranian-American relations could alter the perspectives presented here.