The Cuban president says there are currently no talks with the United States following Trump’s threats.

The Economy on the Brink

Cuba is facing the worst economic crisis in its recent history. For the past five years, the island has been mired in an economic stalemate that is worsening month by month. The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a fatal blow to the tourism industry, the country’s main source of foreign currency. Before the health crisis, tourism brought in about $3 billion a year. Today, those revenues have collapsed. Hotels are empty, beaches are deserted, and restaurants are closed. The Cuban government estimates that U.S. sanctions cost the country more than $7.5 billion between March 2024 and February 2025—a colossal sum for an already fragile economy.

Shortages have become a daily reality for Cubans. There is a lack of food, medicine, and basic necessities. Lines outside stores are getting longer, shelves remain empty, and prices are skyrocketing. The foreign currency shortage is paralyzing imports, making it impossible to purchase essential goods. Public services are collapsing. Schools lack supplies, hospitals lack medical equipment, and public transportation lacks fuel. This widespread deterioration is driving more and more Cubans to flee their country. A massive wave of migration has begun, mainly toward the United States, where Cubans until recently enjoyed immigration privileges as political exiles. But Trump has closed the borders, trapping those who remain.

Power Outages: A Symbol of Collapse

Power outages have become the most visible symbol of the Cuban crisis. The dilapidated and poorly maintained power grid regularly collapses. Entire neighborhoods in Havana are plunged into darkness for hours, sometimes days. Fans stop running in the sweltering Caribbean heat. Refrigerators stop working, causing food to rot. Hospitals operate in emergency mode, putting patients’ lives at risk. This situation is not new, but it is worsening dramatically. Even with Venezuelan oil shipments, Cuba’s power grid was struggling to hold up. Without this fuel, total collapse looms.

Experts are concerned about the consequences of a total cutoff in oil supplies. Jorge Piñón, who closely monitors fuel shipments to Cuba, believes the situation could become catastrophic. Mexico continues to send oil, but Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum refuses to specify whether these shipments will increase to compensate for the loss of Venezuelan oil. She insists that this aid “has been in place for a long time” and is “nothing new.” But she carefully avoids making any commitments about the future. Russia, another supplier to Cuba, could increase its shipments, but this remains uncertain. In the meantime, Cubans live in fear of the next power outage, the next blackout that could last for days.

I imagine those nights without electricity, that suffocating heat, those families waiting in the dark for the power to come back on. And I wonder how anyone could deliberately inflict this on people who didn’t ask for any of it. Because that’s exactly what this is: collective punishment to force a government to yield.

A Vital Alliance Shattered

The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, was a game-changer for Cuba. This spectacular operation by U.S. forces in Caracas not only decapitated the Venezuelan regime, but it also severed Cuba’s main economic lifeline. Venezuela was much more than just an oil supplier for the island. It was an ideological ally, a strategic partner, and an indispensable source of financial support. The two countries shared a common worldview, a fierce opposition to U.S. imperialism, and a revolutionary solidarity inherited from the Chávez-Castro era. This alliance enabled Cuba to survive after the fall of the Soviet Union, which had been its main source of support for decades.

But today, that alliance lies in ruins. Maduro is in the hands of the Americans, Venezuela is plunging into chaos, and Cuba finds itself isolated. Venezuelan oil shipments, which accounted for half of the island’s energy supply, have been cut off. The money that used to flow in from Caracas has dried up. The 32 Cuban officers killed during the U.S. operation in Venezuela symbolize the depth of this alliance. These men were not there by chance. They were advising, training, and supporting the Maduro regime. Their deaths are a severe blow to Havana, which is losing not only allies but also valuable human resources amid a widespread crisis.

The Feared Domino Effect

Maduro’s downfall has Cuba fearing a domino effect. If the United States has succeeded in overthrowing the Venezuelan regime, what’s to stop it from doing the same in Cuba? This question haunts Cuban leaders. Trump has shown that he is willing to use military force to achieve his objectives in Latin America. The operation in Venezuela was swift, brutal, and effective. It sent a clear message to regimes hostile to the United States: you are not untouchable. Cuba, located just 150 kilometers off the coast of Florida, is particularly vulnerable. A U.S. military intervention would be technically easy to carry out. But politically, it would be a different story.

Experts are divided on the likelihood of U.S. military action against Cuba. Andy S. Gómez, former dean of the University of Miami’s School of International Studies, believes the situation is “very sad and concerning.” He views Díaz-Canel’s statements as “a way to buy time for the inner circle to decide what steps to take.” In his view, Cuba will not seek to contact the United States for the time being. “They had every opportunity when President Obama opened diplomatic relations, and yet they didn’t even bring Cuban coffee to the table,” he says. “Of course, these are desperate times for Cuba.” ” Michael Galant, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, believes, on the contrary, that Cuba might be ready to negotiate. “Cuba is looking for ways to ease the sanctions,” he says. But he adds that Trump is in no hurry. “Trump hopes to deepen the economic crisis on the island, and there’s little cost to Trump in trying to wait.”

Cubans Divided

On the ground, ordinary Cubans are experiencing this crisis with a mixture of resignation and hope. Oreidy Guzmán, a 32-year-old food delivery driver, sums up the ambivalence felt by many: “I don’t wish any harm on Cubans, but if something has to happen, the people deserve a change.” This statement captures the frustration of a population exhausted by decades of deprivation, restrictions, and broken promises. Many Cubans, especially among the young, dream of a different future. They see images of prosperity from elsewhere and wonder why their country remains stuck in the past. But at the same time, they fear the chaos, violence, and uncertainty that sudden change could bring.

Meilyn Gómez, a 37-year-old homemaker, expresses another facet of Cuban public opinion. She does not believe the United States will invade Cuba, but she is preparing for any eventuality under Trump: “He’ll find entertainment anywhere.” This statement reveals a widespread perception of Trump as an unpredictable leader, capable of impulsive and dangerous decisions. Cubans have learned to live with uncertainty, but Trump’s rise to power has added a new layer of anxiety. No one really knows what he’s going to do. Will he settle for threats? Will he impose new sanctions? Will he order a military intervention? This unpredictability may be Trump’s most effective weapon: it keeps Cuba in a state of constant tension.

These Cuban voices move me. They are neither heroic nor cowardly. They are simply human. People who want to live normal lives, who are tired of just surviving, who dream of a better future without knowing how to achieve it. And in the midst of it all, the world’s leaders are playing their power games.

Defending the Homeland

But not all Cubans are willing to accept change imposed from the outside. Rubén Benítez, a 57-year-old bartender, represents another strand of public opinion. “Cubans talk and talk, but to be honest, eleven, eight, or nine million will take to the streets to defend what little we have left.” This statement reflects a deep-seated nationalism that runs through Cuban society. Despite the hardships, despite the deprivations, many Cubans remain committed to their independence, their sovereignty, and their national pride. The idea of U.S. intervention—of a regime change imposed by Washington—clashes with this deep-seated sentiment. For these Cubans, resisting the United States is not a matter of supporting the government; it is a matter of national dignity.

This division in Cuban public opinion complicates the situation. Trump may be hoping that a sufficiently severe economic crisis will trigger a popular uprising against the regime. But Cuba’s history shows that this scenario is far from guaranteed. The Cuban people survived the “Special Period” of the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the economy collapsed and famine loomed. They have survived decades of the U.S. embargo. They could survive this new crisis. The question is: at what cost? And how much longer will Cubans be willing to pay that price to preserve their independence?

Sheinbaum Refuses to Take a Side

Mexico finds itself in a delicate position. Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum must navigate between her traditional support for Cuba and her complex relations with the United States. On Monday, she refused to provide data on current oil shipments to Cuba or to say whether those shipments would increase to compensate for the loss of Venezuelan oil. She emphasized that this aid “has been in place for a long time” and is “nothing new.” This caution is not surprising. Mexico does not want to provoke Trump, who could impose sanctions or create problems at the border. But at the same time, Mexico does not want to abandon Cuba, a neighbor with which it has historic ties.

Sheinbaum proposed that Mexico facilitate dialogue between the United States and Cuba if both sides agree. This is a classic diplomatic offer, allowing Mexico to position itself as a neutral mediator without taking sides. But this offer is unlikely to succeed in the current context. Trump does not seem interested in dialogue. He wants Cuba to capitulate, not to negotiate. And Cuba refuses to negotiate under threat. Mexico thus finds itself in a stalemate, unable to truly influence the situation but obliged to maintain a diplomatic stance. This Mexican caution also reveals a broader reality: Latin American countries are increasingly reluctant to openly challenge the United States, even when they disapprove of its actions.

64 Years of Sanctions

The U.S. embargo against Cuba has been in place since 1962. Sixty-four years of sanctions, restrictions, and an economic blockade. It is the longest-running embargo in modern history. It prohibits U.S. companies from doing business with Cuba, restricts travel by U.S. citizens to the island, and freezes Cuban assets in the United States. This embargo has been tightened on several occasions, particularly during the first Trump administration, which imposed new sanctions aimed at stifling the Cuban economy. The official goal of this embargo is to force democratic change in Cuba. But after more than six decades, it is clear that this goal has not been achieved. The Cuban regime remains in power, despite the hardships and difficulties.

Supporters of the embargo argue that pressure must be maintained on the Cuban regime to force it to respect human rights and establish democracy. Opponents counter that the embargo merely punishes ordinary Cubans without truly affecting the leaders. This collective punishment is condemned every year by the United Nations General Assembly, which votes overwhelmingly to lift the embargo. In 2025, 187 countries voted to end the embargo; only the United States and Israel voted against it. This symbolic vote highlights the United States’ diplomatic isolation on this issue. But Washington ignores these resolutions and maintains its policy.

Sixty-four years. Think about it. Three generations of Cubans have grown up under this embargo. Children born in 1962 are now grandparents. And the policy hasn’t changed. At what point do we admit that this strategy isn’t working? Or perhaps the goal was never to change Cuba, but simply to make it suffer.

Obama’s Attempts at Reopening Relations

In 2014, President Barack Obama attempted to change the approach. He announced the normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba, the reopening of embassies, and the easing of restrictions on travel and trade. This historic opening sparked a great deal of hope, both in Cuba and in the United States. Thousands of Americans visited the island, companies began exploring business opportunities, and families separated for decades were able to reunite. But this opening remained limited. The embargo itself was not lifted, as only the U.S. Congress can do so, and Republicans were firmly opposed to it. Obama did what he could through executive orders, but the foundations of U.S. policy toward Cuba remained unchanged.

Then Trump came to power in 2017 and immediately began dismantling Obama’s legacy. He tightened sanctions, restricted travel, and banned transactions with companies controlled by the Cuban military. This reversal dashed hopes for normalization. Relations between the two countries have reverted to their Cold War state. And now, in 2026, Trump is back for a second term, and he seems determined to go even further. His recent threats suggest he is considering a major escalation, perhaps even military intervention. Cuba is preparing for the worst, while hoping that Trump’s threats will remain empty words.

Russia and China Lying in Wait

Cuba is not alone in facing the United States. Russia and China are closely monitoring the situation and could step in to support the island. Russia, in particular, has deep historical ties with Cuba dating back to the Soviet era. Moscow already supplies oil to Cuba and could increase those shipments to offset the loss of Venezuelan oil. Russia also has strategic interests in Cuba. The island offers a potential base for projecting Russian power into the Caribbean, just a few kilometers from the U.S. coast. This is a geopolitical asset that Moscow does not want to lose. China, for its part, views Cuba as an important economic and political partner in Latin America. Beijing has invested in infrastructure projects in Cuba and could increase its support if the island finds itself isolated.

This geopolitical dimension complicates Trump’s strategy. If he pushes Cuba too far, he risks driving it into the arms of Russia and China, creating a situation similar to the 1962 missile crisis. At that time, the Soviet Union had deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba, triggering a crisis that nearly led to nuclear war. Today, the context is different, but the stakes remain high. A new Cold War is taking shape between the United States on one side and Russia and China on the other. Cuba could become a pawn in this dangerous game. Trump seems to be ignoring these risks, or perhaps he is underestimating them. But history shows that crises in the Caribbean can quickly escalate.

Repression in Cuba

The United States justifies its policy toward Cuba on the grounds of defending human rights. The Cuban regime is accused of suppressing dissent, imprisoning political opponents, controlling the media, and restricting fundamental freedoms. These accusations are not without merit. Cuba is a one-party state where the Communist Party controls all levers of power. Elections are not free, the press is censored, and demonstrations are banned. Dissidents face imprisonment, harassment, and exile. International organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International regularly document these violations. The situation worsened after the July 2021 protests, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets to protest shortages and repression. The government responded with a wave of mass arrests.

But is this human rights rhetoric sincere, or is it merely a pretext to justify a policy of hostility? Critics of U.S. policy point out that Washington maintains cordial relations with many authoritarian regimes around the world. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, to name just a few, have human rights records far worse than Cuba’s. Yet the United States does not sanction them; on the contrary, it supports them. This double standard suggests that human rights are merely a smokescreen. The true objective of U.S. policy toward Cuba is likely geopolitical: to eliminate a hostile regime in its backyard, assert its dominance over Latin America, and send a message to other countries tempted to defy Washington.

Human rights as a political weapon. It’s cynical, but it’s the reality. They’re brandished when it’s convenient, forgotten when it’s inconvenient. And in the meantime, the people who truly suffer from repression—whether in Cuba, Saudi Arabia, or elsewhere—remain hostages to these power games.

The UN and U.S. Isolation

The international community is watching the escalation between Washington and Havana with concern. Every year, the United Nations General Assembly votes overwhelmingly to lift the U.S. embargo against Cuba. In 2025, 187 countries voted in favor of this resolution; only the United States and Israel voted against it. This overwhelming vote demonstrates Washington’s diplomatic isolation on the Cuban issue. But these resolutions are not legally binding. The United States systematically ignores them and continues its sanctions policy. This situation reveals the limits of multilateralism in the face of U.S. power. When Washington decides to ignore international law, no one can truly stop it.

The European Union maintains diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba, despite U.S. pressure. Brussels has always refused to follow Washington’s hard line, preferring an approach of constructive engagement. But this position is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. European companies that trade with Cuba risk U.S. sanctions. Banks are reluctant to process transactions related to the island for fear of reprisals. This extraterritorial application of U.S. laws deeply irritates Europeans, who see it as an infringement on their sovereignty. But in the face of U.S. economic power, they have few means of resistance. The result is a form of tacit submission to U.S. policy, even when they disapprove of it.

Possible Scenarios

What will happen now? Several scenarios are possible. The first—and most likely in the short term—is the status quo. Trump continues to issue threats, Cuba continues to resist, and the situation remains deadlocked. Sanctions pile up, the Cuban economy deteriorates further, but the regime holds firm. This scenario could last for months, or even years. The second scenario is a military escalation. Trump orders a U.S. intervention in Cuba—either to overthrow the regime, establish a no-fly zone, or support an internal rebellion. This scenario is less likely, as it would entail enormous risks, both military and political. But with Trump, nothing is ever completely out of the question.

The third scenario is negotiation. Despite current denials, Cuba and the United States could eventually sit down at the negotiating table. But for that to happen, Trump would have to agree to lift certain sanctions in exchange for Cuban concessions. What concessions? Perhaps political reforms, economic liberalization, or guarantees on human rights. But will Cuba agree to negotiate under threat? And will Trump be willing to compromise? These questions remain unanswered. The fourth scenario is an internal collapse of the Cuban regime. The economic crisis becomes so severe that the government loses control. Massive protests erupt, the army refuses to fire on the crowd, and the regime collapses. This scenario is possible, but it depends on many unpredictable factors.

The Role of the Cuban Diaspora

The Cuban diaspora in the United States plays a crucial role in this story. More than a million Cubans live in the United States, mainly in Florida. This community is politically influential and largely hostile to the regime in Havana. It pressures American politicians to maintain a hard line toward Cuba. Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, is himself a member of this diaspora. Its influence on U.S. policy toward Cuba is considerable. But the Cuban diaspora is not monolithic. Younger generations, born in the United States, often hold more nuanced positions. They want change in Cuba, but not necessarily through force. They want to be able to travel freely, send money to their families, and invest in the island.

This generational shift could influence U.S. policy in the long term. But for now, it is the anti-Castro hawks who dominate the debate. They see the current crisis as a historic opportunity to overthrow the Cuban regime. They are pushing Trump to go further—not to settle for threats, but to take action. This internal pressure further complicates the situation. Trump must satisfy his electoral base in Florida, a state crucial to his reelection. But he must also avoid triggering a major international crisis. It’s a difficult balance to maintain, and Trump is not known for his diplomatic subtlety.

Who will crack first?

So here we are in a giant game of bluff poker. Is Trump bluffing, or is he serious? Can Cuba really hold out indefinitely without Venezuelan oil? Will Mexico increase its shipments? Will Russia and China step in? No one knows the answers. What is certain is that tensions are rising. Díaz-Canel’s statements on Monday show that Cuba won’t give in easily. The Cuban regime has survived far worse crises. It survived the collapse of the Soviet Union, the “Special Period” of the 1990s, and decades of embargo. It might survive Trump. But at what cost? The Cuban people are already paying a huge price. Power outages, shortages, daily hardship. How much longer will Cubans be willing to suffer to preserve their country’s independence?

Trump, for his part, seems convinced that time is on his side. He believes that by exacerbating the economic crisis, he will eventually break Cuban resistance. But this strategy carries risks. If Cuba descends into chaos, the consequences could be catastrophic. A new wave of mass migration to the United States, regional instability, Russian or Chinese intervention. Is Trump prepared to deal with these consequences? Or is he simply hoping that the Cuban regime will capitulate before things spiral out of control? It’s a dangerous gamble. History shows that regimes backed into a corner can react unpredictably. Cuba might decide to retaliate, create problems for the United States, or forge closer alliances with Russia and China. The game is wide open, and no one knows how it will end.

I watch this standoff and can’t help but think of all those who will pay the price. Ordinary Cubans who asked for nothing, who just want to live normal lives. Families torn apart by exile. The sick who lack medicine. The children growing up in deprivation. They aren’t playing poker. They’re just trying to survive. And meanwhile, the world’s powerful clash, indifferent to the suffering they cause. That is the true tragedy of this story.

An Unpredictable Outcome

So, what’s going to happen? Honestly, no one knows. Trump is unpredictable. Cuba is resilient. The geopolitical context is complex. The coming weeks will be crucial. If Trump takes action, if Cuba collapses, if Russia intervenes, everything could change very quickly. But if the situation remains deadlocked, if no one backs down, we could be in for a long war of attrition—a war with no winner, where everyone loses. Cuba would lose its economy, its stability, perhaps even its independence. The United States would lose its credibility, its influence in Latin America, and perhaps even its security if the crisis escalates. And ordinary Cubans would lose everything: their future, their hopes, their dignity.

One thing is certain: this story is not over. The standoff between Havana and Washington will continue. Threats will multiply. Incendiary statements will follow one after another. And somewhere, on the streets of Havana, people will continue to live, to hope, to resist. Because in the end, that’s what matters. Not politicians’ speeches, not geopolitical strategies, not power games. What matters are human lives. And those lives deserve better than to be pawns in a chess game between superpowers. They deserve peace, prosperity, and freedom. But for now, all they have is uncertainty. And waiting. Waiting to see who will crack first in this deadly game of bluff.