Trump Threatens Cuba and Dreams of Installing Rubio in Havana

A Cuban Exile Turned Hawk

Marco Rubio, born in 1971 in Miami to Cuban parents, embodies the generation of exiles who have never forgiven Havana. A Florida senator since 2011, he has established himself as the most vocal opponent of the Cuban regime. For him, there is no compromise—only total capitulation or overthrow by force. His nomination as Secretary of State was perceived in Havana as a declaration of war. Rubio makes no secret of his goal: to see the Cuban regime fall within his lifetime. He compares Cuba to East Germany, believing it will collapse under pressure. But Cuba has developed a strong national identity, forged in resistance to American imperialism.

The fantasy of a “made in the USA” Cuban president

The idea that Rubio could become president of Cuba is pure fantasy. He has never lived in Cuba and has no popular legitimacy in Havana. Yet Trump publicly supports this idea. By suggesting that Rubio could lead Cuba, Trump is sending several messages: to Cubans, that their regime is going to fall; to the regime, that a man from Washington will take power; and to the international community, that Washington has no qualms about violating the sovereignty of states. This strategy is not new. In Guatemala in 1954, in Chile in 1973, in Nicaragua in the 1980s—each time, Washington overthrew governments to install friendly regimes. These interventions had disastrous consequences: civil wars, dictatorships, massacres.

There is something deeply cynical about this idea of installing Rubio in Cuba. It’s as if the Cubans had no say in the matter. Trump and Rubio decided, from Washington, what was best for Cuba. This is pure and simple colonialism, dressed up in the language of democracy.

A Return to Open Imperialism

The “Donroe Doctrine” refers to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which declared Latin America to be a zone of exclusive American influence. Over the decades, it has become a justification for interventionism. For Latin Americans, it is synonymous with imperialism. Trump has revived it, fully embracing the imperialist legacy. For him, Latin America is not a region of equal partners, but a backyard to be controlled. This vision means that Washington reserves the right to intervene militarily in any country that threatens its interests.

A Region in the Crosshairs

Cuba is not the only target. After Venezuela, Colombia nearly faced Washington’s wrath for criticizing the operation in Caracas. Trump threatened devastating sanctions. Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina are wondering if they will be next. Trump is not seeking to build lasting alliances. He wants vassals who obey. This approach is pushing countries toward China and Russia. Beijing has invested billions in the region, becoming the main trading partner of many countries. By trying to control everything, Trump risks losing it all.

This American arrogance astounds me—this certainty that they have the right to dictate the behavior of sovereign nations. Trump is behaving like a Roman emperor. But we are no longer in the 19th century. Latin Americans have their own history and their own aspirations. The more Trump pushes them, the further he drives them away.

Sixty-six Years of Embargo

Since 1962, the United States has imposed a near-total economic blockade on Cuba. This embargo, the longest in modern history, has been condemned 31 times by the UN. The consequences are devastating. The Cuban economy, deprived of its natural market just 150 kilometers away, has had to turn to distant partners. Shortages are chronic. Infrastructure is deteriorating. The UN estimates that the embargo has cost Cuba more than 150 billion dollars. Hospitals lack medicine. Schools lack supplies. Power outages have become so frequent that Cubans have developed an entire vocabulary to describe them. In 2025, several massive blackouts plunged millions of people into darkness for days.

Agriculture and Tourism in Crisis

Cuban agriculture has been severely affected. This tropical island must import a large portion of its food. The embargo prevents Cuba from purchasing tractors, fertilizer, seeds—all the necessary inputs. Farmers work with equipment dating back to the Soviet era. Tourism, a major source of revenue, has also suffered. U.S. restrictions have reduced the number of visitors. Hotels are half-empty. With Trump’s threats, European and Canadian tourists are canceling their reservations. Fewer tourists mean less foreign currency, fewer jobs, and less revenue for the government.

I think of those Cubans who stand in line for hours to buy bread. Of those children who study by candlelight. How can this be justified? How can anyone claim to defend democracy while deliberately starving a population? The embargo is a form of collective violence, a punishment inflicted on millions of innocent people.

A Divided Europe

The European Union, which had normalized relations with Cuba, now finds itself in a delicate position. Brussels is calling for dialogue, but these calls have fallen on deaf ears. Trump does not listen to Europe, which he considers weak. The EU, divided on the Cuban issue, is struggling to adopt a common position. France has expressed its “concern,” but without taking any concrete action. Germany is calling for respect for international law without naming the United States. This timidity reveals Europe’s inability to assert itself as an independent geopolitical actor.

China and Russia Lying in Wait

While Washington tightens its grip, Beijing and Moscow are watching. China sees an opportunity to expand its influence. If the United States cuts off Venezuelan oil, China could offer an alternative. Russia also has interests in Cuba. Russian warships call at Cuban ports. Military advisers are on the ground. If the situation deteriorates, Russia could offer substantial military support, reminiscent of the 1962 missile crisis. No one wants to relive such a scenario, but Trump’s confrontational approach could lead to an uncontrollable escalation.

This international powerlessness fills me with despair. We have built a system of rules meant to prevent major powers from crushing smaller ones. And it’s all falling apart. Trump violates international law with complete impunity. He threatens sovereign nations. And no one is doing anything. Europe protests half-heartedly. The institutions are paralyzed.

Guatemala, Chile, Nicaragua

Guatemala in 1954 offers a telling example. President Arbenz had launched an agrarian reform that threatened the United Fruit Company. The CIA orchestrated a coup. What followed: 36 years of civil war, 200,000 deaths. Chile in 1973: Salvador Allende, democratically elected, was overthrown with U.S. support. Pinochet established a brutal 17-year dictatorship. Thousands of Chileans were tortured and murdered. Nicaragua in the 1980s: Washington funded the Contras against the Sandinista government. Tens of thousands died. These interventions had catastrophic consequences for the local populations.

The Ignored Lessons

These precedents are crucial to understanding Cuba today. Trump and Rubio are repeating a century-old pattern. They think they can overthrow the regime, install a friendly government, and everything will be fine. But history shows that these interventions always have disastrous consequences. Panama in 1989, the Dominican Republic in 1965—each time, thousands of deaths, decades of suffering. Cuba will be no different.

This history haunts me. These coups, these invasions… All in the name of democracy. But what kind of democracy? The Guatemalans, the Chileans, the Nicaraguans have paid the price for American arrogance. Generations sacrificed. And now, we’re getting ready to do it all over again with Cuba. As if we’d learned nothing.

A Strategic Island

Cuba’s geographical proximity to the United States lies at the heart of American obsession. Located 150 kilometers from Florida, Cuba controls access to the Gulf of Mexico, a vital area for U.S. trade. If Cuba were to fall under Chinese or Russian influence, it could theoretically threaten these trade routes. But this argument doesn’t really hold water. Cuba has neither the means nor the intention to block trade. Beyond geography, it is a matter of prestige. The existence of a communist regime just 150 kilometers away is a constant humiliation. Castro has outlived 11 U.S. presidents. This symbolic defeat is unbearable for Washington.

Resources and Economic Interests

Cuba possesses natural resources that are of interest to American companies. Offshore oil fields have been discovered in its territorial waters. Estimates suggest several billion barrels. Cuba also has significant reserves of nickel, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries. With 11 million inhabitants and an ideal location, Cuba could become a major commercial hub. The tourism, agriculture, and telecommunications sectors offer considerable opportunities. Today, it is Europeans, Canadians, and the Chinese who are reaping the benefits. American businesspeople watch with frustration as their competitors set up shop while they remain on the sidelines.

It’s always about money. It’s always about resources. Behind the rhetoric about freedom lie oil companies eager to exploit the oil fields, battery manufacturers hungry for nickel, and hotel chains eager to build resorts. And to satisfy these appetites, they’re willing to starve an entire population.

The Cuban-American community in Florida

The Cuban-American community in Florida plays a crucial role in U.S. policy toward Cuba. With more than one million people of Cuban origin, Florida has become a stronghold of opposition to the regime in Havana. These exiles and their descendants form a powerful voting bloc capable of influencing presidential elections in this swing state. Both parties court their vote, but it is the Republicans who have been most successful in winning their support by taking a hard line against Cuba. Marco Rubio perfectly embodies this dynamic: as a Florida senator, he represents the aspirations of this community, which dreams of seeing the Cuban regime fall and of recovering the property confiscated by the revolution. For decades, these exiles have maintained a powerful lobby in Washington, blocking any attempt to normalize relations with Cuba.

But this community is not monolithic. The generations are divided on the Cuban issue. The older generation, who lived through the revolution and exile, remain fiercely opposed to any dialogue with Havana. They want the regime to fall—nothing less. The younger generation, born in the United States, has a more nuanced view. Many have never set foot in Cuba. They feel American first and foremost. For them, their parents’ and grandparents’ anti-Castro obsession is a thing of the past. They are more open to normalization, provided it is accompanied by democratic reforms. This generational divide could, in the long run, weaken the anti-Cuban lobby. But for now, the hardliners still dominate, and Trump knows he can count on their support for his aggressive policy toward Cuba.

This exploitation of the exiles’ suffering makes me uncomfortable. Their stories are real; their traumas are legitimate. But they are being used to justify policies that cause suffering to other Cubans—those who remained on the island. It is one tragedy begetting another. The exiles want to reclaim what they’ve lost—that’s understandable. But at what cost? At the cost of hunger, misery, and the deaths of millions of people who have nothing to do with the 1959 revolution?

The Economic Interests Behind the Lobby

Beyond political and emotional considerations, there are also significant economic interests at stake. Many Cuban exiles have made their fortunes in the United States in real estate, finance, and business. They dream of returning to Cuba and investing heavily there once the regime has fallen. Some have retained the title deeds to their former homes, land, and confiscated businesses. They hope to reclaim them and rebuild their lost empires. These economic interests fuel the anti-Cuban lobby and partly explain its relentless determination. It is not just about politics or ideology—it is also about money, property, and economic power. American companies, too, are biding their time. They know that a regime change in Cuba would open up a market of 11 million consumers, investment opportunities across all sectors, and access to the island’s natural resources.

Daily Life Under the Embargo

To understand the scale of the crisis threatening Cuba, one must look at the daily lives of ordinary Cubans. Every day is a struggle for survival. Lines form outside stores before dawn. People wait for hours to buy bread, rice, and beans—the basic staples. The shelves are often empty. When a delivery truck arrives, there’s a mad rush. Families have to ration their food, carefully planning every meal. Children go to school on empty stomachs. The elderly skip meals so their grandchildren can eat. This has been the reality for millions of Cubans for decades. And now, with Trump’s threats to completely cut off oil supplies, this already desperate situation risks becoming catastrophic. Without electricity, refrigerators stop working. Food rots. Medicines that need to be refrigerated become unusable. Hospitals can no longer operate. Schools close. It’s a downward spiral.

The Cuban healthcare system, once the pride of the regime, is on the verge of collapse. Hospitals lack everything: medicines, equipment, and basic supplies. Doctors are performing miracles with almost nothing. They reuse syringes, improvise treatments, and ration care. Patients must bring their own sheets and their own food. Surgical procedures are postponed indefinitely due to a lack of supplies. Chronically ill patients can no longer obtain their medications. Diabetics lack insulin. Asthmatics lack inhalers. Cancer patients can no longer receive chemotherapy. It’s a health crisis unfolding in slow motion, invisible to the rest of the world. And Trump wants to make this situation worse by cutting off the island’s last remaining resources. It’s pure and simple cruelty, disguised as foreign policy.

When I read these accounts from Cubans struggling to survive, I can’t help but think of my own comfortable life. I have electricity 24 hours a day. I have food in abundance. I have access to medical care. And I take all of this for granted. But for millions of Cubans, these are luxuries beyond their reach. And it’s not their fault. They didn’t choose to be born in Cuba. They didn’t choose the embargo. They didn’t choose this Cold War that has lasted for more than 60 years. They are the collateral victims of a conflict beyond their control. And now, they want to punish them even more, starve them even more, make them suffer even more. For what? To satisfy Trump’s ego? To fulfill Rubio’s fantasies? It’s inhumane.

The Exodus and the Diaspora

Faced with this desperate situation, many Cubans have only one solution: to flee. Every year, thousands of people attempt to cross the Florida Straits in makeshift boats. Many die at sea, drowned or devoured by sharks. Those who survive arrive in the United States traumatized, with nothing, forced to start all over again. Others take land routes, crossing Central America and Mexico to reach the U.S. border. The journey is long, dangerous, and expensive. Smugglers demand astronomical sums. Migrants are victims of violence, extortion, and rape. But they would rather risk their lives than stay in Cuba with no future. This massive exodus is depriving the island of its lifeblood. Young graduates, doctors, engineers, artists—they’re all leaving. Cuba is losing its talent, its future. And if the situation worsens with Trump’s new sanctions, this exodus could turn into a tsunami. Hundreds of thousands of Cubans could try to flee, creating an unprecedented migration crisis in the Caribbean and Florida.

Negotiation or Collapse

In the best-case scenario, the threats could push Cuba to negotiate. The United States would demand political reforms: multiparty elections, the release of prisoners, and freedom of the press. In exchange, the embargo would be gradually lifted. This scenario resembles Vietnam in the 1990s. But it faces obstacles: mutual mistrust, the refusal of Cuban exiles to accept a compromise, and internal divisions within Cuba. The most likely scenario is economic collapse. By cutting off oil supplies and tightening the embargo, Washington hopes to provoke a crisis so severe that the regime will collapse. But that would mean massive shortages, hospitals that no longer function, and closed schools—an enormous human cost.

Military Intervention

If negotiations fail, Trump could opt for military intervention. This scenario, unthinkable just a few years ago, has become plausible following Maduro’s capture. A special forces operation aimed at capturing Cuban leaders is possible. But Cuba has a well-trained army, sophisticated defense systems, and a population that could put up resistance. A large-scale invasion would require months of preparation, would be extremely costly, and would provoke massive international condemnation. It would result in thousands of deaths, destroy infrastructure, and create a humanitarian crisis. Refugees would flood into Florida. The United States would become bogged down in a costly occupation, as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

All these scenarios send a chill down my spine. Negotiation, intervention, collapse—in any case, it is ordinary Cubans who will suffer. Those who just want to live their lives and raise their children. But their fate does not factor into Trump and Rubio’s calculations. What matters is prestige, power, and historical revenge.

Cuba at a Crossroads

January 2026 marks a historic turning point for Cuba. Trump’s threats are part of a coherent strategy aimed at overthrowing the regime. Maduro’s capture showed that Washington was ready to act. The suggestion that Rubio could become president reveals the scope of these ambitions. The threat to cut off oil supplies aims to economically strangle the island. Faced with this pressure, Cuba has three options: resist at all costs, negotiate by accepting reforms, or turn to China and Russia. None is satisfactory. All carry enormous risks for the population.

The coming months will be decisive. If Venezuelan oil stops flowing, Cuba will face an unprecedented crisis. Power outages will become permanent. Shortages will worsen. The healthcare system will collapse. The population could reach its breaking point. Massive protests could erupt. In this context, a collapse of the regime becomes possible. But what would come next remains a huge unknown: a transitional government, civil war, military intervention? No one can predict it. What is certain is that ordinary Cubans will be the first victims.

I conclude with sadness and anger. Sadness for the Cuban people, who will suffer because of decisions made thousands of kilometers away. Anger toward Trump, Rubio, and all those who play with human lives. I hope that this retiree from Havana is right—that the presidents “talk but don’t act.” But I’m afraid she’s wrong. I’m afraid that in a few months, we’ll be watching Cuba plunged into chaos. History will judge us. It will judge Trump and Rubio for their actions. But it will also judge us for our inaction, our indifference, our acceptance of the unacceptable. There’s still time to act. There is still time to say no. There is still time to defend Cuba—not because its regime is perfect, but because its people deserve to live in peace, to choose their own destiny, without a foreign power imposing its will on them by force.