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A String of Defeats Abroad

Iran is ripe for change—that is undeniable. The past few years have been particularly humiliating for the mullahs’ regime on the international stage. Their proxy in Gaza, Hamas, launched the October 7 attacks without Tehran being fully informed of the details, dragging them into a conflict over which they had little control. This lack of coordination and inability to control their own regional allies have exposed deep flaws in Iran’s leadership apparatus. They were then forced to accept that another proxy they had spent decades cultivating—Hezbollah—remained largely on the sidelines of a broader conflict with Israel, thereby limiting their ability to project influence in the region. This forced passivity stood in stark contrast to Tehran’s usual bellicose rhetoric and its repeated threats to destroy Israel.

The Iranian-armed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched attacks that had virtually no impact on Israel, demonstrating once again the limits of Iran’s ability to project power and the ineffectiveness of its regional allies. Worse still, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of Iran, collapsed as Assad fled to Moscow, thereby squandering the Iranian efforts invested in keeping him in power during the country’s devastating civil war. Iran had invested billions of dollars and thousands of lives in supporting Assad, viewing Syria as a crucial link in its regional “axis of resistance.” The fall of the Syrian regime therefore represents not only a major strategic setback but also a considerable investment lost forever, with lasting consequences for Iran’s ability to maintain its influence in the Levant.

There is something ironic about seeing a regime that presents itself as the bastion of anti-imperialist resistance being sidelined in this way by its own allies. Hamas acts without consulting Tehran, Hezbollah remains on the sidelines, the Houthis strike at nothing… It’s like watching a puppeteer lose control of her puppets one by one. What saddens me most about this situation is that civilian populations continue to pay the price for these failed strategic calculations. Syrians have suffered through years of war for a regime that is finally collapsing; Yemenis live in abysmal poverty while their “protectors” launch ineffective missiles; and the Iranian people continue to grow poorer to finance foreign adventures that end in disaster. When will leaders understand that true power lies in the well-being of their own people rather than in fragile alliances with armed groups?

The Collapse of the Shiite Axis

Ten years ago, Iran seemed poised to create a Shiite highway stretching from Tehran to Beirut, with checkpoints in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Today, that sphere of influence appears to be in tatters. Iraq appears determined to free itself from the yoke of Iranian influence and hopes that the recent elections and instability in Iran will weaken the armed groups operating under the authority of the ayatollahs. The Iraqi government, which had long navigated between American and Iranian influence, now appears to be distancing itself from Tehran, aware that the Iraqi public is increasingly hostile to any foreign interference. Iraqi Shia militias, long funded and trained by Iran, now find themselves in a precarious position, their legitimacy challenged by a population weary of violence and corruption.

Added to this is a completely collapsing economy, a devalued currency, and the suppression of the rights of a very young population that refuses to accept the deadlock. The Iranian rial has lost much of its value in recent years, making basic necessities unaffordable for the majority of the population. Rampant inflation, youth unemployment, and widespread corruption have created an explosive mix that fueled the December protests. U.S. and European economic sanctions have exacerbated this situation, but the regime’s inability to implement structural economic reforms is also to blame. The government’s attempts to control prices and crack down on black markets have only made matters worse, creating shortages and fueling popular discontent.

I can’t help but think of this generation of Iranians who have known nothing but the mullahs’ regime but who dream of something different. These young people who use VPNs to bypass censorship, who listen to Western music in secret, who organize protests through encrypted apps… they represent the future of this country, not elderly clerics trapped in their obscurantist ideology. What strikes me is their resilience in the face of adversity. Despite the repression, despite the poverty, despite international isolation, they continue to fight for a better life. And yet, the world continues to abandon them, to treat them like pawns in a geopolitical game that is beyond their control. It makes one wonder whether we truly deserve the leadership role we claim to play on the world stage.

Sources

Primary Sources

Article from The Hill – “Trump’s threat on Iran falls flat: regime remains intact” by Jos Joseph, published on January 19, 2026

Reuters article – “Iran protests abate after deadly crackdown, Trump says Tehran calls off mass hangings” by Parisa Hafezi, Nayera Abdallah et al., published on January 16, 2026

BBC article – “Trump vows ‘very strong action’ if Iran executes protesters” by Tabby Wilson, published January 14, 2026

Secondary sources

Reports from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) on deaths during protests in Iran, January 2026

Statements by President Donald Trump on Truth Social regarding Iran, January 2026

Testimonies from Iranian residents collected by Reuters and the BBC, January 2026

Press releases from the United Nations Human Rights Office on the situation in Iran, January 2026

This content was created with the help of AI.

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