Between Paranoia and the Reality on the Ground
You probably remember that idea that made headlines around the world: the United States considering annexing Greenland. Why? Because U.S. President Donald Trump insists it’s a real threat. According to him, Russian ships and submarines are lurking in the area, justifying an immediate takeover of this autonomous Danish territory.
But what’s the reality on the ground? If we listen to the experts who are right in the thick of things, the situation is far from what’s being claimed. For Marc Lanteigne, who teaches political science at the University of Tromsø in Norway and at the University of Greenland in Nuuk, the idea of a Chinese military presence off the island’s coast is pure fiction. The evidence is clear: there are neither Chinese nor Russian ships in the area. China’s actual footprint on the ground? For now, it remains very limited.
Is the “Polar Silk Road” at a standstill?
That hasn’t stopped Beijing from jostling for position. For the past decade or so, China’s interest in the Arctic has remained unwavering. It even proclaimed itself a “quasi-Arctic state” in 2018. A bold claim, considering that its northernmost point is still nearly 1,500 kilometers from the Arctic Circle! At the time, the plan was clear: launch a “Polar Silk Road” and invest heavily in airports and mines.
Except that things didn’t go as planned. Mathieu Duchâtel, director of international studies at the Institut Montaigne, is unequivocal: over the course of ten years, the intention was there, but political resistance was fierce. The result? A series of failures. The purchase of a naval base, airport expansions, telecommunications projects… everything was blocked or abandoned.
So, what about the economy in all this? Marc Lanteigne points out that ties between Beijing and Nuuk remain very limited: a bit of fishing, some tourism, and that’s it. Even the four mining projects involving Chinese partners, proposed seven or eight years ago, are at a standstill. None are active today.
Moscow, the Real Dance Partner
While things are stalling in Greenland, there’s movement along the Russian coast. With global warming, melting ice is opening up the Northern Sea Route. It’s a tempting shortcut: from Asia to Europe in just twenty days or so. Admittedly, we’re still a long way from replacing the Suez Canal. The route remains seasonal, costly, and dangerous. As proof, in 2025, only 14 Chinese ships used it, mainly to transport Russian gas. But China is giving it serious consideration for the future.
The real geopolitical turning point came after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Isolated, Moscow now depends on Beijing for its finances and technology. The two giants are growing closer: joint patrols in the Bering Strait, a cooperation agreement between coast guards signed in 2023… This is where China’s presence becomes tangible.
Science as a Trojan horse?
Don’t be fooled by appearances. While China has no soldiers in Greenland, it’s betting everything on science. Did you know that it currently has five icebreakers? That’s two more than the United States. It’s ramping up scientific missions, officially for research purposes.
But Marc Lanteigne raises a crucial point: this data is a double-edged sword. Seabed mapping, sonar, atmospheric measurements… what’s useful to scientists is also useful to the military. This is what’s known as dual-use technology.
Yet mistrust remains the order of the day. As Mathieu Duchâtel points out, building ports or critical infrastructure with China creates vulnerability—levers that Beijing could activate in the event of a conflict. In short, this is the warning that comes up time and again: behind the diplomatic olive branch, the risk of dependence is never far away.
Source: ici.radio-canada.ca
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What China Is Really Manufacturing in Greenland (Far From American Fantasies)
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