The Yaroslavl refinery is still burning: Ukraine strikes at the heart of Russia’s war machine

A Colossal Infrastructure in the Heart of Russia

To understand why Yaroslavl has become such an important target, one must understand what Slavneft-YANOS is. This refinery is not just an industrial site. It is a pillar of the Russian economy. Located 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow, it is the largest refinery in Russia’s Central Federal District. Its processing capacity following modernization exceeds 6.2 million metric tons per year according to some sources, and 15 million metric tons according to others. The figures vary, but the bottom line remains the same: it is enormous.

The refinery produces a full range of petroleum products: automotive gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and lubricants. Everything that keeps a modern economy running. And above all, everything that keeps a war economy running. Among its customers are “virtually all major companies in central and northwestern Russia,” according to the company’s website. But also airports. The Northern Railway Administration. And, a telling detail: facilities of the military-industrial complex.

A vital link in the military supply chain

That is the heart of the matter. Slavneft-YANOS does more than just supply fuel to Russian civilians. It directly fuels the war machine. The fighter jets bombing Ukrainian cities? They fly on kerosene produced here. The tanks advancing into the Donbas? They run on diesel refined here. The military trucks transporting ammunition to the front lines? Same thing. Striking this refinery isn’t just an act of economic sabotage. It’s a strategic military operation.

And the Ukrainians have understood this well. Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Kyiv has developed a strategy of deep strikes into Russian territory. At first tentatively, with restrictions imposed by Western allies. Then with increasing boldness, using Ukrainian-made drones capable of traveling hundreds of kilometers. Yaroslavl, 700 kilometers from the border, proves that nothing is out of reach—not even the industrial heart of Russia.

And that’s when I realize: we’re witnessing a turning point. For a long time, the war in Ukraine was asymmetrical. Russia struck deep into Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine defended itself. Now, Ukraine is striking back as well. And it’s striking hard. It’s striking accurately. It’s transforming the war into a conflict where Moscow is no longer safe. Where Russian strategic facilities are becoming legitimate targets. That’s the balance of terror, version 2026. And frankly, after everything Ukraine has endured, I can’t blame them.

Dozens of strikes since the start of the war

The strike on Yaroslavl is not an isolated incident. It is part of a much broader campaign. Since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Refineries, fuel depots, loading terminals—nothing escapes the Ukrainian drones. In December 2025, according to several sources, Ukraine set a record for strikes on Russian energy facilities.

The targets are carefully chosen. Tuapse, on the Black Sea. Rovenky, in the occupied territory of Luhansk. Lipetsk. Tatarstan, where the Kazanorgsintez chemical plant was recently hit. And now Yaroslavl, struck twice in less than a month. The strategy is clear: strike everywhere, all the time, to keep up the pressure. To force Russia to spread out its air defenses. To create a sense of insecurity even in the heart of Russian territory.

A Significant Economic and Military Impact

The consequences of this campaign are beginning to be felt. According to some estimates, nearly 40% of Russia’s refining capacity has been taken offline at one time or another since the start of the war. Some facilities have resumed operations after repairs. Others remain shut down. But the cumulative effect is undeniable: Russia must draw on its reserves, import fuel, and reorganize its logistics. All of this costs money. All of this slows down the war effort.

And it’s not just a matter of quantity. It’s also a matter of quality. Modern refineries like Slavneft-YANOS produce specialized fuels for military aviation and high-performance lubricants for heavy equipment. Losing these capabilities forces the Russian military to use less effective substitutes. It increases wear and tear on equipment. And ultimately, it weakens the operational capacity of Russian forces.

I remember the debates two years ago, when some experts said that Ukraine could never win this war—that Russia was too big, too powerful, and too rich in resources. And now, I see Russian refineries burning 700 kilometers from the border. I see a Ukrainian strategy that is turning Russia’s strategic depth into a vulnerability. Because yes, Russia is large. But that also means it has a lot of infrastructure to protect. And it cannot protect it all at once. Ukraine has understood this. And it is taking advantage of it.

Claimed Interceptions, Successful Strikes

Every time a Ukrainian strike succeeds, the Russian Ministry of Defense issues a triumphant statement. “90 drones shot down last night,” it proclaimed after the strike on December 12. Impressive numbers. Interception rates that border on perfection. But here’s the problem: if 90 drones were shot down, how many were launched? And more importantly, how many reached their targets? Because the images of Yaroslavl in flames don’t lie. Ukrainian drones are getting through. And they’re striking.

The reality is that Russia’s air defense is under pressure. It must cover a vast territory. It must protect thousands of strategic sites. And it must contend with drones that are increasingly sophisticated and numerous. The Ukrainians have learned their lesson. They’re launching swarms of drones. Some are decoys; others carry explosive payloads. They fly low, use the terrain to their advantage, and jam the radars. And sometimes—often, in fact—they get through.

A War of Technological Attrition

What is playing out in the Russian skies is a war of attrition. Every anti-aircraft missile fired costs tens, even hundreds of thousands of dollars. Every Ukrainian drone shot down is replaced by ten others. Can Russia sustain this pace indefinitely? Can it continue to protect all its critical infrastructure in the face of a threat that shows no sign of abating? The repeated strikes on Yaroslavl suggest not. They suggest that Russian defenses have vulnerabilities—and that the Ukrainians know how to exploit them.

There is also the question of priorities. Russia must choose: protect its refineries or protect its cities? Its military depots or its power plants? Every air defense system deployed in Yaroslavl is one that cannot be deployed elsewhere. And the Ukrainians know this. They strike everywhere, all the time, to force Russia to spread its resources thin. It’s a strategy of attrition. And it’s working.

I think of those Russian generals who have to explain to Putin why, despite all their S-300s, S-400s, Pantsirs, and other technological marvels, Ukrainian drones continue to strike at the heart of Russia. I think of their embarrassment. Their anger, perhaps. Because the truth is, they’re outmatched. Not by technology. By determination. By ingenuity. By the Ukrainian resolve never to give up. And no air defense system can stop that.

From Handcrafted Models to Industrial Production

At the start of the war, Ukrainian drones were often modified commercial models—Chinese DJI drones equipped with grenades. These were ingenious but limited DIY solutions. Today, it’s a different story. Ukraine has developed a full-fledged drone industry. Long-range models capable of traveling 1,000 kilometers or more. Optimized explosive payloads. Sophisticated navigation systems. And above all, a production capacity that allows for the launch of dozens, even hundreds, of drones in a single night.

These drones are not precision weapons in the traditional sense. They cannot compete with a cruise missile in terms of power or reliability. But they have one huge advantage: they are inexpensive. A Ukrainian drone costs a few thousand dollars. A Russian anti-aircraft missile costs hundreds of thousands. The math is simple: for every drone shot down, Russia spends a hundred times more than Ukraine. This is an economic war of attrition. And Ukraine is winning it.

A Strategy That Redefines Modern Warfare

What Ukraine is proving is that modern warfare isn’t won solely with tanks and planes. It’s won with drones. With innovation. With flexibility. The Ukrainians have turned a weakness—their numerical and technological inferiority compared to Russia—into a strength. They can’t compete with the Russian military in terms of raw firepower? So be it. They’ll strike where it hurts. Deep inside. At the infrastructure. At the economy. At morale.

And it’s working. Every refinery that burns is a message sent to Moscow: you are not safe. Every fuel depot destroyed is a strategic victory. Every successful strike is proof that Ukraine has not been defeated. That it will not be defeated. That even after nearly four years of war, it still has the means to strike. And that it will continue to strike until Russia understands that it cannot win this war.

I am fascinated by this transformation. Ukraine in 2022 was a country fighting for its survival. The Ukraine of 2026 is a country striking at the heart of the enemy. A country transforming the war into a conflict where Russia can no longer feel safe. And all of this with drones—flying machines that cost less than a car. This is the military revolution of the 21st century. And we’re witnessing it unfold right before our eyes.

Western Allies Face a Dilemma

Every Ukrainian strike on Russian territory raises a question for Western allies: How far can they go in supporting Kyiv? For a long time, the United States and Europe have imposed strict restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine. No deep strikes into Russian territory. No attacks on civilian infrastructure. But Ukrainian drones are locally manufactured. They are not subject to these restrictions. And they are striking.

This creates a paradoxical situation. The West supplies Ukraine with cruise missiles that it cannot use against targets in Russia. But it turns a blind eye when Ukrainian drones strike refineries 700 kilometers from the border. Why? Because these strikes are effective. Because they weaken Russia without risking a nuclear escalation. Because they allow Ukraine to hold out, to resist, to keep fighting. And ultimately, that’s all the West wants: for Ukraine not to lose.

Russia Isolated on the International Stage

Every successful Ukrainian strike is also a slap in the face for Russia on the international stage. How can Moscow claim to be a superpower when it can’t even protect its own refineries? How can it claim that its “special military operation” is going according to plan when Ukrainian drones are striking deep within its territory? The answer is simple: it can’t. And the whole world can see it.

This war has already cost Russia its status as a major military power. Images of destroyed Russian tanks, captured Russian soldiers, and killed Russian generals have been seen around the world. Now, images of Russian refineries in flames add a new dimension: Russia is no longer even capable of protecting its own territory. It’s a humiliation. And for a regime like Putin’s, which has built its legitimacy on force and power, this may be worse than a military defeat.

I look at these images of Yaroslavl in flames and I think to myself: this is what happens when you underestimate your opponent. Putin thought Ukraine would fall in a matter of days. That Kyiv would capitulate. That the West would give up. He was wrong on every count. And now, he’s paying the price. His refineries are burning. His economy is faltering. His army is being worn down. And the whole world is watching. The whole world sees that the emperor has no clothes. That Russia is not the invincible superpower it claims to be. That is Ukraine’s true victory—not just a military one, but a symbolic one as well.

An Oil Industry Under Pressure

The Russian economy relies heavily on oil and gas. They are its main source of revenue. They fund the government, the military, and public services. But this dependence is also a vulnerability. Every refinery taken out of service means a loss of revenue. Every metric ton of fuel that cannot be produced is a metric ton that must be imported or replaced. And all of this costs money—a lot of money.

According to some estimates, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have already cost Moscow billions of dollars—not just in property damage, but also in lost production, repair costs, and logistical reorganization. And it’s not over yet. Every new strike adds to the bill. Every refinery that burns is another blow to the Russian economy. And Ukraine knows it. That’s why it keeps striking.

An Impact on Russian Military Capability

But beyond the economy, it is Russia’s military capacity that is being affected. A modern army consumes phenomenal amounts of fuel. Tanks, planes, trucks, ships—everything runs on oil. And if the refineries aren’t producing enough, the military has to ration. It has to limit its operations. It has to choose between keeping up the pressure on the front lines or conserving reserves for the future.

That is exactly what Ukraine is seeking to achieve. Not necessarily to stop the Russian army completely, but to slow it down and weaken it. To force it to make difficult choices. And every strike on a refinery like Yaroslavl contributes to that goal. It’s a war of attrition. Not just in terms of men and equipment. But also in terms of resources. Fuel. Production capacity. And in this war of attrition, Ukraine is gaining the upper hand.

I’m thinking of all those analysts who, at the start of the war, predicted that Ukraine wouldn’t last more than a few weeks. That Russia was too powerful. That the Ukrainian economy would collapse. And now, it’s the Russian economy that’s faltering. It’s Russian refineries that are burning. It’s the Russian military that has to ration its fuel. The irony is almost too good to be true. Almost. Because behind these numbers, these statistics, these analyses, there are lives. Ukrainian soldiers fighting. Civilians suffering. Families mourning. But at least now they can tell themselves: we’re not losing. We’re striking back. We’re resisting. We’re holding on.

A Telling Official Silence

After every Ukrainian strike, the official Russian response follows the same pattern. First, silence. For a few hours, no confirmation. No denial. Just silence. Then, when the footage becomes impossible to ignore, when eyewitness accounts pour in, and when international media pick up the story, Moscow finally responds. But never to confirm the damage. Always to downplay it. “Minor incident.” “Limited damage.” “Situation under control.”

After the January 6 strike on Yaroslavl, Russian authorities provided “no clear explanation of the causes of the explosions,” according to Militarnyi. No official casualty count. No details on the extent of the damage. Just silence. Or almost. Because that silence speaks volumes. It says that Russia is embarrassed. That it doesn’t know how to handle this situation. That it cannot admit that its defenses have failed. Again.

The Temptation to Escalate

But silence isn’t Moscow’s only option. There’s also escalation. Every Ukrainian strike on Russian territory increases the pressure on Putin to retaliate. To strike harder. To show that Russia won’t take this lying down. And that is where the danger lies. Because if Russia decides to escalate, if it decides to strike Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in retaliation, the cycle of violence will only intensify.

For now, Russia seems to have chosen a middle ground. It continues to bomb Ukraine, but without major escalation. It is strengthening its air defenses, but without complete success. It downplays the damage, but without convincing anyone. It’s an uncomfortable position. A position of weakness. And Ukraine is taking advantage of it. It continues to strike. It continues to keep up the pressure. It continues to prove that Russia is not invincible.

I wonder how Putin feels when he sees these images. When he learns that another refinery is burning. That another depot has exploded. That another Ukrainian drone has managed to get through. Is he seething with rage? Is he panicking? Or does he remain impassive, convinced that Russia will ultimately prevail? I don’t know. But what I do know is that every Ukrainian strike is a reminder: this war isn’t over. And Russia hasn’t won. Far from it.

The explosions in Yaroslavl on the night of January 6, 2026, are not merely a military incident. They symbolize a war that has changed in nature—a war that is no longer being fought solely on the battlefields of the Donbas, but also deep within Russian territory. A war in which Ukrainian drones strike refineries 700 kilometers from the border. A war in which Ukraine, despite its numerical and material inferiority, manages to keep the pressure on Russia. To weaken it. To wear it down.

The Slavneft-YANOS refinery is burning. Again. And it probably won’t be the last. Because Ukraine has realized that to win this war, it must strike everywhere. On the front lines, yes. But also behind the lines. At infrastructure. At the economy. At morale. It’s a strategy of attrition. A long-term strategy. But it’s a strategy that works. And as long as Ukrainian drones continue to fly, as long as Russian refineries continue to burn, Russia cannot claim to have won this war.

I end this article with a strange feeling—a mix of satisfaction and sadness. Satisfaction at seeing Ukraine hold its ground, resist, and strike back. Sadness at the realization that this war is far from over. That the flames in Yaroslavl are just one more episode in a conflict that has lasted nearly four years. But at least now we know one thing: Ukraine will not back down. It will strike back. It will resist. It will hold its ground. Until the very end. And maybe—just maybe—it will eventually win.