Climate: Colombian Cocoa Is Forced to Move to Higher Altitudes

An Uncertain Future for Lowland Cocoa

The future of cocoa farming in Colombia may no longer lie in its historic lowlands. A new scientific study suggests a major geographical shift by 2050. The finding is clear: due to climate change, nearly 20% of the land currently suitable for cocoa cultivation may no longer be so. This primarily affects lower-altitude, warmer regions.

However, this does not spell the end for Colombian cacao. Far from it. The same report indicates that many major production areas, nestled along the Andean foothills, are expected to retain favorable conditions. Better yet, certain higher-altitude regions could become new areas suitable for this crop.

This projection is the result of research conducted by scientists from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. They combined climate models with data on current farms and the presence of wild cacao trees to outline how growing conditions will evolve over the next 25 years.

Map of at-risk areas: the north on the front lines

The researchers’ model identifies a very clear hotspot: the plains of northern Colombia. This is where the study predicts the most significant declines in suitability for cocoa cultivation. Areas in the Caribbean region and the northeast could see rising temperatures and more extreme or unpredictable rainfall, placing crops under intense stress.

Several departments have been identified as particularly vulnerable. The list includes Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre, and Antioquia. Added to these are areas in the northeast such as Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada. For farming families, the risk is not just a decline in yields; it is a growing uncertainty that makes it harder to plan investments.

These threats are not the stuff of science fiction. Recent events demonstrate that climate variability is already having tangible impacts. A cold snap that struck northern Colombia had global repercussions and caused major flooding in the lowlands of the Caribbean region and other Andean areas. This is proof that the problem is not far off, but already very much present.

The Good News: Andean Strongholds Are Holding Up

However, the picture painted by the study is not uniformly bleak. It suggests that Colombia’s main cocoa-producing areas will remain healthy. The foothills of the Andes, where most of the current cultivation is concentrated, are expected to retain favorable climatic conditions. This is crucial information: production is not disappearing—it is shifting.

Researchers even project a net expansion of about 3% in the area suitable for cocoa cultivation, mainly at higher altitudes. The trend is clear: a gradual migration to higher elevations. As the lowlands become less reliable, cooler areas at higher elevations are becoming more suitable.

“This means that cocoa in Colombia will not disappear, but will likely undergo a gradual process of geographic redistribution,” explains Carlos Eduardo González, a researcher at AGROSAVIA and one of the study’s lead authors. This major shift, however, poses its own challenges in terms of land-use planning, infrastructure, support for farmers, and preventing deforestation.

The Secret Weapon: The Genetic Treasure of Wild Cacao

One of the most fascinating aspects of the study concerns wild cacao. Models indicate that its populations could expand into new areas as the climate changes. But its true value lies in its genetic richness. It serves as a kind of climate insurance policy for the future of the industry.

“Wild cacao has an advantage that cultivated cacao does not: it has evolved over thousands of years under extreme climatic conditions,” explains Tobias Fremout of the Alliance of Bioversity International–CIAT. “The populations currently growing in very hot, very dry, or very humid areas are precisely the ones that interest us the most, because they may contain genes that will allow us to develop varieties that are more resilient to future climate change.”

It is in these wild relatives that breeders will look for traits such as heat tolerance, drought resistance, or the ability to withstand heavy rains and disease pressure. Protecting the forests where these wild populations live therefore means protecting options for future cacao improvement. The study thus emphasizes the conservation of native lowland forests, as they may hold the genetic diversity necessary to maintain cacao productivity.

Adapting in the Field: Agroforestry and Other Solutions

Faced with these changes, what can farmers do right now? Researchers highlight agroforestry as one of the most realistic tools. Growing cacao in the shade of other trees protects it from extreme temperatures. This plant cover can reduce heat stress, improve soil moisture retention, and create more stable conditions during dry periods.

In regions expected to experience more frequent droughts, the study suggests that supplemental irrigation could become a key factor in maintaining stable yields. Beyond these techniques, other approaches are discussed to spread risk, such as diversifying production or using genetic material that is more climate-resilient.

The idea is not to find a single solution, but rather to layer protections so that farms no longer depend on perfect weather conditions. The goal is to build resilience at multiple levels.

Planning for the Future: A Must for Colombia

The results of this study should not be viewed as a condemnation, but rather as a guide for regional planning and targeted adaptation. The goal is not to define a single national policy applicable everywhere. Each region will require different strategies depending on its elevation, changes in precipitation, and exposure to heat.

The researchers also emphasize the critical need for reliable and accessible climate information. Such information would enable farmers and institutions to make decisions proactively, rather than reacting only after losses have been incurred. The message is clear: the future of cocoa in Colombia is viable.

But its sustainability will depend on the country’s ability to anticipate changes, protect its wild genetic resources, and make its farms more resilient in the face of an increasingly unpredictable climate. This research was published in the scientific journal Regional Environmental Change.

Source: earth.com

Climate: Colombian Cocoa Is Forced to Move to Higher Altitudes