COLUMN: Trump Is Playing with Fire by Naming His Successors for 2028

A Calculated Refusal to Choose

Trump was clear in his vagueness. “We have three years ahead of us. I don’t want to—you know, I have two people who are doing an excellent job. I don’t want to have a fight with them, or I don’t want to use the word ‘fight’—it wouldn’t be a fight. But look, JD is fantastic, and Marco is fantastic,” he told NBC News. Fantastic. He used that word twice. As if repeating it were enough to convince anyone. But Trump doesn’t stop there. He adds a nuance, almost imperceptible: “I’d say one is slightly more diplomatic than the other.” A barely veiled dig at Rubio, the career diplomat.

The Idea of a Vance-Rubio Ticket

And then comes the proposal that hits the mark. Trump suggests that the two men could team up. “I think there’s a difference in style. You know, you can see the style for yourself. But they’re both very capable. Here’s what I think: the combination of JD and Marco would be very hard to beat, I think. But you never know in politics, do you?” A Vance-Rubio ticket. The idea isn’t new. Trump already brought it up six months ago, according to Vance’s own statements on the New York Post’s “Pod Force One” podcast. But this time, it takes on a different dimension. More concrete. More real.

Trump is a genius at political manipulation—you have to give him that. By refusing to choose, he keeps the tension high. He stays in control. He ensures that Vance and Rubio remain loyal, that they don’t turn on each other, and that they continue to serve his agenda. It’s Machiavellian. It’s brilliant. It’s also deeply cynical. Because deep down, Trump doesn’t care about 2028. What interests him is 2026. And above all, it’s him.

Colleagues Who Became Close Friends

Vance and Rubio know each other well—very well, in fact. They were colleagues in the Senate, where they would have lunch together and discuss movies and national defense. They even worked on joint bills, such as the William S. Knudsen Defense Remobilization Act, which called for a national strategy to revitalize defense production. Today, according to Vance, they continue to have lunch together every two weeks to “catch up on what’s going on and talk things over.” Vance even goes so far as to describe Rubio as his “best friend in the administration.”

An Underlying Rivalry

But can we really call it friendship when the two men are competing for the same position? Republican insiders are speculating. The polls speak for themselves. And public statements, however friendly they may be, cannot hide one reality: only one of them will be at the top of the ticket in 2028. Vance has, in fact, acknowledged “joking” with Rubio about the idea of a joint ticket, but he added that it was “too premature” to discuss it seriously. “There won’t be any tension” over who will be the top of the ticket, he asserted. Really?

I find it hard to believe in this picture-perfect friendship they’re selling us. Not because Vance and Rubio are liars—no. But because political ambition leaves no room for naivety. These two men know what’s at stake. They know that one of them will have to step aside. And in the ruthless world of American politics, friendship is often the first thing sacrificed on the altar of power.

A Changing Political Landscape

The 2028 election will be historic. For the first time in years, the race will be wide open on both sides—Republican and Democratic. Trump will not be able to run again, unless he violates the Constitution—an idea he actually hinted at during his interview with NBC News. When asked about a possible scenario in which he would still be president in January 2029, Trump replied, “I don’t know. That would be interesting.” A joke? A provocation? With Trump, you never know. But one thing is certain: 2028 will see a crowded field of candidates, among both Republicans and Democrats.

Lessons from the Midterm Elections

The results of last November’s midterm elections served as a wake-up call for the Republican Party. Without Trump on the ballot, the Republicans underperformed. Voter enthusiasm was lacking. Voters stayed home. This reality worries party strategists, who are wondering whether the MAGA movement can survive without its founder. James Blair, political director of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and now deputy chief of staff, has advised potential 2028 candidates to focus first on the 2026 midterm elections. “If you’re a Republican who wants to run in 2028 right now, you need to focus on keeping Republicans in power for 2026,” he said.

The Republicans face an existential dilemma. They built their success on one man, Trump, and now they must learn to exist without him. It’s like trying to walk after spending years in a wheelchair. The muscles have atrophied. Confidence is fragile. And the risk of falling is enormous. Vance and Rubio know this. They know they aren’t Trump. No one is. And that may be their greatest challenge.

Cabinet Members in the Wings

Vance and Rubio aren’t the only ones with presidential ambitions. Other members of Trump’s cabinet have sought the presidency in the past. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has tried his hand at it. So has Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Even Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of Health and Human Services, had to withdraw from the 2028 race this summer after far-right activist Laura Loomer raised concerns that one of his aides was trying to “lay the groundwork for an RFK presidential run in 2028.”

Trump’s shadow still looms

But beyond these potential candidates, it is Trump’s shadow that continues to loom over the race. In the POLITICO poll mentioned earlier, 28% of respondents said they wanted Trump as the candidate in 2028. Twenty-eight percent. That’s almost as much as Vance. And it’s indicative of an electoral base that isn’t ready to move on. Trump knows this. He’s playing on it. And he’ll continue to play on it until the very last moment.

This obsession with Trump fascinates me as much as it worries me. How can an entire country be so captivated by a single man? How can a democracy function when a significant portion of the electorate refuses to look toward the future? I don’t have an answer. But I know that this dependence on Trump is unhealthy. For the Republican Party. For America. For democracy itself.

A Master Manipulator

Trump has never been one to relinquish power easily. Even now, as he enters his final year in office, he continues to pull the strings. By refusing to clearly name a successor, he keeps Vance and Rubio in a position of dependence. They must remain loyal. They must continue to serve his agenda. They cannot afford to cross him, lest they lose his support. It’s a brilliant strategy, however cynical it may be.

The Specter of a Third Term

And then there’s that crazy, unconstitutional idea that just won’t die: a third term for Trump. He’s mentioned it several times, only to backtrack. But during his interview with NBC News, he once again left the door open. “I don’t know. It would be interesting,” he said when asked if he could envision a scenario in which he’d still be president in January 2029. A joke? Perhaps. But with Trump, you never know. And that’s precisely what makes the situation so dangerous.

Trump will never truly go away. Even when he leaves the White House, he’ll continue to haunt American politics like a ghost that refuses to move on. That’s his nature. That’s his ego. And that’s also what makes him such a polarizing figure. You either love him or hate him, but you can’t ignore him. And Trump has understood that for a long time.

A Party in Search of Its Identity

The Republican Party is undergoing a profound identity crisis. For years, it defined itself in opposition to the Democrats. Then Trump came along and turned everything upside down. He reshaped the party in his own image, creating a populist, nationalist, anti-establishment movement. But now that Trump is nearing the end of his term, the party must ask itself: Who are we without him? Are we still Reagan’s party? Or have we become Trump’s party? And if so, what happens when Trump is no longer there?

The Challenge of Succession

Trump’s succession will be the ultimate test for the Republican Party. Vance and Rubio represent two different visions of what the party could become. Vance embodies the continuity of Trumpism, with his direct style, his unapologetic populism, and his willingness to shake up the establishment. Rubio, on the other hand, represents a return to a more traditional, diplomatic, and institutional form of conservatism. The choice between these two men will not merely be a choice of candidate. It will be a choice of identity for the entire party.

I look at the Republican Party and see a ship without a captain. Trump is still there, of course, but he already has one foot out the door. And no one really knows who will take the helm after him. Vance? Rubio? Someone else? The uncertainty is palpable. And in that uncertainty lies a danger. Because a party without clear direction is a vulnerable party. Vulnerable to internal divisions. Vulnerable to opportunists. Vulnerable to failure.

Intense media coverage

The American media is already in campaign mode for 2028. Every statement Trump makes is analyzed, dissected, and commented on. Every move Vance and Rubio make is scrutinized. Polls are popping up everywhere. Speculation is running rampant. And all of this, three years before the election. It’s both fascinating and exhausting. Fascinating because it shows just how much American politics has become a never-ending spectacle. Exhausting because it feels like the campaign never ends.

Public Opinion Divided

American public opinion is deeply divided on the question of Trump’s successor. Trump supporters want a candidate who will carry on their hero’s legacy. Traditional Republicans hope for a return to some form of normalcy. And Democrats are watching it all with a mix of fascination and horror, wondering who their opponent will be in 2028. This division is nothing new, but it’s growing more pronounced as the election approaches.

America is tired. Tired of polarization. Tired of the relentless political battles. Tired of Trump, even if part of the country refuses to admit it. But this fatigue doesn’t translate into a desire for radical change. No. It manifests as a kind of resignation. People know that 2028 will be yet another epic battle, yet another election that will divide the country, yet another four years of potential chaos. And they’re already exhausted just thinking about it.

A Historic Turning Point

The 2028 election will mark a turning point in American political history. For the first time since 2016, the United States will have to choose a president without Trump’s name appearing directly on the ballot. It will be a test for the MAGA movement. A test for the Republican Party. A test for American democracy itself. Vance and Rubio are the two frontrunners to carry the Trumpist torch, but nothing is guaranteed. Politics is unpredictable. Voters are fickle. And Trump, even out of the race, will continue to influence the debate.

The Unanswered Questions

So many questions remain unanswered. Will Vance and Rubio really team up? Will Trump ultimately choose one of them? Will an outsider emerge to shake up the race? And above all, will the Republican Party survive the Trump era? These questions will haunt Washington for the next three years. And the answers—whatever they may be—will shape America’s future for decades to come.

I don’t know what lies ahead for me in 2028. No one does. But what I do know is that this election will be decisive—not just for America, but for the entire world. Because America, whether we like it or not, remains the world’s leading power. And its decisions have repercussions everywhere. So yes, I’m worried. Worried about the future. Worried about democracy. Worried about all of us. But I’m also curious. Curious to see how this story will end. Or rather, how it will continue. Because with Trump, the story never really ends.

Signed, Jacques Provost