OP-ED: Trump and Netanyahu, or the Art of Playing with Iranian Fire

Scenario 1: The Impossible Agreement

Let’s suppose negotiations resume. The United States and Iran sit down at the table. But Netanyahu remains standing, arms crossed. A deal without Israel is a stillborn deal. Tehran knows this. So does Washington. So what’s the point?

The Iranians, for their part, have been clear: their ballistic missile program is non-negotiable. It’s a red line. If Trump gives in on this point, Netanyahu will cry foul. If he doesn’t give in, Iran will walk away from the table. Deadlock.

Scenario 2: Preventive War

Netanyahu has never hidden his preference for a military solution—a strike against Iran’s nuclear sites, similar to the 1981 strike against Iraq. But this time, the risks are much higher. Iran is not Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Its missiles can reach Israel. Its allies—Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas—can strike from all directions. A war against Iran would set the Middle East ablaze.

Trump knows this. But he also knows that a war, during an election year, could be an asset. Or political suicide.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, Watching from the Sidelines

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are watching with concern. A war against Iran would expose them to retaliation. But a nuclear Iran terrifies them even more. They are urging Trump to take a firm stance, while praying to avoid the worst. An impossible balancing act.

Netanyahu, for his part, is counting on their support. But how far will they go? As far as sending their soldiers to die for Israel? Maybe. Maybe not.

Russia and China: Arbiters or Arsonists?

Moscow and Beijing are playing a double game. Officially, they advocate diplomacy. Unofficially, they’re selling weapons to Tehran. Their goal? To weaken America, no matter the cost. And if war were to break out, they’d take advantage of it to expand their influence.

A Never-Ending Conflict

While Trump and Netanyahu talk about Iran, Gaza is burning. Hamas, backed by Tehran, continues to fire rockets. Israel responds with airstrikes. Every death, every act of destruction, fuels the hatred. What if the real war were just beginning?

No matter how much Netanyahu wants to focus on Iran, Gaza remains an open wound. One spark, and the entire Middle East will go up in flames.

A regional—or even global—conflict

An attack on Iran would not remain isolated. Hezbollah would strike Israel from Lebanon. The Houthis would target Saudi Arabia. Iraqi militias would attack U.S. bases. Chaos would reign. And the United States, once again, would find itself mired in a quagmire.

The global economy would pay the price. Oil prices would skyrocket. Markets would collapse. No one would win. Except perhaps China, which would watch as the West gets bogged down.

Iran, a nuclear power?

If the negotiations fail, Tehran will accelerate its program. In a few years, Iran will have the bomb. Netanyahu has said it: that is unacceptable. But is war any less so?

An Isolated Israel

Netanyahu is betting everything on Trump. But what if the U.S. president opts for diplomacy? Israel would find itself alone against Iran. Is it ready to strike on its own?

History has shown that Israel does not hesitate to act unilaterally. In 1981, against Iraq. In 2007, against Syria. In 2026, against Iran? The risk is real. And the consequences would be catastrophic.

The European Union: The Big Absentee

Europe, for its part, is watching from afar. It condemns the threats and calls for dialogue, but no longer carries any weight. Its influence in the Middle East is nonexistent. Yet it would be the first to be affected by a war.

Refugees would pour in. Terrorism would resurface. The European economy, already fragile, would collapse. But no one in Brussels seems to care.

Can we still avoid the worst?

There is one solution left: deterrence. Convincing Iran that war would be too costly. Convincing Israel that peace is possible. But that would require courageous leaders. Yet in 2026, courage is a rare commodity.

Trump and Netanyahu prefer muscle to words. But how far can they push things before everything explodes?

Between Hope and Disaster

The meeting between Trump and Netanyahu resolved nothing. It merely postponed the deadline. An agreement is possible, but unlikely. War is avoidable, but likely. The Middle East is sitting on a powder keg. And the fuse has been lit.

The world is holding its breath. But for how long?

By Maxime Marquette

Editorial Stance

This post analyzes the risks of a military escalation between Israel and Iran, highlighting the contradictions in the U.S. and Israeli positions. It advocates for a diplomatic solution, while emphasizing the major obstacles to an agreement.

Methodology and Sources

This article draws on official statements, expert analyses, and international press reports. The scenarios presented are based on the current positions of the various actors.

Nature of the Analysis

This is an opinion piece that combines geopolitical analysis with a stance against a logic of confrontation that could lead to a devastating war.