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Trump is pushing the U.S.-European alliance to the brink because of Greenland

Jacques Pj Provost

2026-06-20 22:55:42

The Russian and Chinese Security Argument

Trump asserts that control of Greenland is essential to prevent Russia and China from gaining more ground in the Arctic. In his letter to the Norwegian prime minister, he writes that “The world is not safe unless we have complete and total control of Greenland.” The Trump administration has also suggested that the United States needs Greenland for its Golden Dome missile defense shield, its “economic security,” and access to minerals—areas in which Denmark has signaled its openness to enhanced collaboration. These arguments have been echoed in various official statements, presenting Greenland as a critical strategic asset for the United States.

However, many European experts and officials dispute these justifications. Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official under the Obama administration and now a research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, asserts that “The president’s arguments about Greenland are patently absurd from start to finish.” Critics point out that the United States already has military bases on the island and has traditionally worked closely with Denmark on security matters. A 1951 defense agreement, moreover, grants the U.S. military access to Greenland. Danish officials have repeatedly expressed their willingness to work with Washington to strengthen the U.S. and NATO presence in the region.

What really fascinates me is Trump’s ability to invent threats where none exist to justify his expansionist ambitions. Chinese warships encircling Greenland? The Danish foreign minister had to point out that there haven’t been any Chinese warships in Greenland for about ten years. It’s this kind of disinformation that scares me: when the leader of the world’s superpower spins tales to justify seizing sovereign territory, we’ve entered very, very dangerous territory. And the worst part is that people actually believe it.

The Danish and Greenlandic Responses

Denmark and Greenland were quick to respond firmly to the U.S. claims. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Denmark’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated during a visit to London on Monday: “This is 2026—you can trade with people, but you don’t trade people.” This statement sums up the Danish position: Greenland is not a commodity to be bought or sold. Greenland’s Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, was equally firm in a Facebook post, asserting that the territory should be allowed to decide its own fate: “We will not bow to pressure. We remain steadfast in our commitment to dialogue, respect, and international law.”

Copenhagen has also taken concrete steps to strengthen Greenland’s defense. Last year, the Danish government announced a $6.5 billion Arctic defense package in response to U.S. criticism that it had failed to adequately protect Greenland. In addition, Danish soldiers were deployed to the island to participate in military exercises. These efforts, however, did not seem to appease Trump, who stated that he would consider taking Greenland by force if other means of acquiring the territory failed. This potential threat of military action against a NATO ally shocked many U.S. observers and lawmakers.

Section 3: The Impact on the NATO Alliance

A Deep Rift Within the Alliance

The conflict over Greenland threatens to irreversibly destabilize NATO. The alliance, which has underpinned Western security for decades, was already under strain due to the war in Ukraine and Trump’s refusal to protect allies who do not spend enough on defense. The possibility that the United States might launch a military action against Denmark, another NATO member, seems unthinkable to many observers. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) predicted that any military operation to seize the island “would lead to impeachment,” calling Trump’s obsession with Greenland “the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.”

Criticism is also emerging from within the Republican Party itself. During a speech in the Senate last week, Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned of “disastrous” consequences if Trump violated the sovereignty of a longtime ally, stating that it would amount to “incinerating the hard-won trust of loyal allies in exchange for no significant change in U.S. access to the Arctic.” He emphasized that strengthening security in Greenland is achievable without annexation: “I have yet to hear from this administration a single thing we need from Greenland that this sovereign people is not already willing to grant us.” These divisions within the Republican camp itself underscore the severity of the crisis.

When I see Republican senators—people who have supported Trump for years—speaking out against him on this issue, I realize that something has truly broken. It’s as if, all of a sudden, the curtain has fallen and everyone has realized that the emperor has no clothes. NATO isn’t perfect—far from it—but it’s the only system we have to maintain some stability in this chaotic world. And now we’re blowing it up because one man wants to add an island to his collection. It’s pure madness, and what scares me the most is that there seems to be no limit to this madness.

Implications for European Security

The Greenland crisis has profound implications for European security. European leaders fear that Trump’s obsession with acquiring Greenland will divert attention and resources away from Ukraine, thereby complicating European efforts to maintain a strong and united front as the United States pushes hard for a peace agreement to end the war. A European government official expressed his concerns: “What I find extremely worrying is seeing that within NATO and the EU, some are beginning to accept the narrative about Russian and Chinese threats against Greenland.” This official fears that this acceptance could serve as a pretext for future actions, including potentially a military strike.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for “calm dialogue” among allies, noting that “Greenland’s security matters and will matter even more as climate change reshapes the Arctic.” He emphasized the need for “greater attention, greater investment, and a stronger collective defense,” adding that “the United States will be at the heart of this effort, and the United Kingdom stands ready to contribute fully alongside our allies through NATO.” However, Starmer criticized Trump’s use of tariffs against allies, stating that “this is completely wrong. It is not the right way to resolve disputes within an alliance.”

Section 4: Economic Impact

An Imminent Trade War

The threat of U.S. tariffs has already sent shockwaves through financial markets and European industry. Fears of a return to the volatility of the 2025 trade war—which only subsided when the parties reached tariff agreements midway through the year—are palpable. European leaders are preparing for severe economic retaliation. One option under consideration is a tariff package on €93 billion worth of U.S. imports that could take effect automatically on February 6 following a six-month suspension. Another option is the use of the “Anti-Coercion Instrument” (ACI), which has never been used before.

The ACI could limit access to public procurement, investment, or banking activities, or restrict trade in services—an area where the United States runs a surplus with the bloc—including digital services. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be “very unwise” for European governments to retaliate. However, European leaders appear determined to defend their economic interests. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would also try to meet with Trump on Wednesday, adding that a trade dispute was not desirable. “But if we are faced with tariffs that we consider unreasonable, then we are capable of responding,” he warned.

Look, I’m no economist, but even I understand that when you start taxing your closest allies, you’re just shooting yourself in the foot. It’s like cutting off the branch you’re sitting on. Financial markets don’t like uncertainty, and right now, Trump is giving them plenty of it. What frustrates me the most is that it’s ordinary workers and ordinary families who will pay the price. Prices will rise, jobs will be at risk—all because one man wants to satisfy his geopolitical ego. It’s unfair, it’s ineffective, and it’s absolutely tragic.

The Impact on Transatlantic Companies

Companies operating on both sides of the Atlantic are caught in the crossfire of this diplomatic and trade conflict. European manufacturers fear that U.S. tariffs will severely disrupt their supply chains and their access to the U.S. market. For their part, U.S. companies that depend on European markets for their sales and investments dread potential retaliation from the European Union. The climate of uncertainty that has prevailed since the tariffs were announced has already begun to affect the investment and strategic planning decisions of many multinational companies.

Particularly vulnerable sectors include the automotive, aerospace, technology, and pharmaceutical industries, all of which are heavily integrated into transatlantic trade. Analysts warn that a prolonged trade war between the United States and Europe could cost billions of dollars in economic losses and threaten thousands of jobs in both regions. Even more than the direct economic losses, it is the erosion of trust and the deterioration of trade relations that could have long-term consequences for the economic prosperity of the West as a whole.

Section 5: International Reactions

The Position of Russia and China

Russia declined to comment on whether U.S. plans for Greenland were good or bad, but stated that it was hard to disagree with experts who say that Trump “would go down in world history” if he took control of the island. This statement, though phrased diplomatically, suggests that Moscow sees the Greenland conflict as an opportunity to further divide the Western alliance. For Vladimir Putin, who has long sought to weaken NATO and European unity, Trump’s actions could well be an unexpected gift. Experts note that Trump’s obsession with acquiring Greenland and his refusal to rule out a military takeover are helping Putin achieve his long-standing goal of weakening Western alliances.

China, for its part, has remained relatively silent on the Greenland dispute, but analysts suggest that Beijing is closely monitoring developments. China has significantly expanded its presence and investments in the Arctic over the past decade, and increased U.S. control over Greenland could limit Chinese opportunities in the region. However, the growing rift between the United States and Europe could also offer China opportunities to strengthen its relations with European countries seeking to diversify their strategic partnerships. The geopolitics of the Arctic could thus be redefined by this conflict.

When I think of Putin and the Chinese leaders watching all this unfold, I can’t help but think they must be laughing out loud. Over there, in Moscow as well as in Beijing, they must be pinching themselves to believe it. The United States, the leader of the free world, attacking its own allies, destroying alliances that generations have built—all because the U.S. president wants to add an island to his personal empire. It’s the perfect scenario for them: they don’t even have to lift a finger; the West is self-destructing all on its own. And that, perhaps, is what scares me the most: the idea that we’re doing exactly what our enemies want us to do.

Reactions from Other Western Allies

U.S. allies outside Europe have also reacted with concern to developments regarding Greenland. Canada, a NATO member and Arctic neighbor of the United States, has expressed concerns about the implications of unilateral U.S. action on territorial sovereignty. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney outlined a “precondition” for joining what Trump calls his “Peace Council,” suggesting that U.S. actions regarding Greenland could affect Canada-U.S. cooperation. Japan and Australia, other key U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, have also expressed concerns about the impact of the Greenland crisis on global stability.

The United Nations has also been brought into the matter, although reactions have been muted so far. Key UN bodies have called for respect for international law and diplomatic dialogue to resolve the dispute. However, the organization’s inability to intervene more meaningfully underscores the limits of global governance in the face of actions by major powers. Diplomats from many countries have privately expressed their concerns, fearing that the Greenland conflict may mark the beginning of a new era of geopolitical instability and aggressive nationalism.

Section 6: Diplomatic Outlook

Diplomatic Options

Despite escalating tensions, diplomatic options remain to resolve the Greenland crisis. The European Union has emphasized that it remains committed to engaging with the United States “at all levels,” although the use of its ACI has not been ruled out. Some European officials have suggested that a negotiated solution could involve strengthened military and economic cooperation between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland without a change in sovereignty. Denmark has already indicated its willingness to work more closely with Washington on Arctic security and may be inclined to offer additional guarantees in exchange for an easing of tensions.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere has adjusted his schedule, announcing that he will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday and Thursday, overlapping with Trump’s scheduled appearance at this annual gathering of the world’s political and economic elite. Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote address on Wednesday, his first appearance at the conference in six years. This coincidence could provide an opportunity for informal discussions and a possible de-escalation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also expressed his intention to meet with Trump on Wednesday, suggesting that a multilateral approach may be necessary to resolve the crisis.

I want to believe—truly—that diplomacy can still save the day. That reasonable men and women can sit down at a table and find a solution. But honestly, I’m growing increasingly skeptical. How do you negotiate with someone who seems to view alliances as business deals and international relations as a zero-sum power game? It’s like trying to negotiate with someone holding a live grenade and threatening to drop it unless you give them what they want. That’s not diplomacy—it’s blackmail—and I very much fear that it’s the only language Trump truly understands.

Possible Scenarios

Several future scenarios are possible at this stage of the crisis. The most optimistic scenario would be a negotiated resolution in which the United States agrees to drop its annexation demands in exchange for enhanced cooperation on security and economic development with Denmark and Greenland. This scenario, however, would require a significant concession on Trump’s part, which seems unlikely given his rhetoric so far. An intermediate scenario could involve a prolonged stalemate, with U.S. tariffs in place and corresponding European retaliatory measures, creating a new normal of economic and diplomatic tensions between the two sides of the Atlantic.

The most pessimistic scenario—and one increasingly discussed by some observers—would be a military escalation. Trump declined to comment when asked on Monday whether he would use force to seize Greenland, responding simply, “No comment.” This troubling reticence, combined with his assertion that he would “go 100% ahead” with his plans to impose tariffs on European nations without a deal on Greenland, leaves open the possibility of military action. Such an action would constitute a flagrant violation of international law and NATO’s Article 5, which considers any attack on a member of the alliance to be an attack on the entire alliance. The consequences of such a scenario for global security would be incalculable.

Conclusion: A Crisis That Defines Our Era

Lessons to Be Learned from This Crisis

The Greenland crisis is much more than an isolated territorial dispute. It reveals deep flaws in the international system that emerged after World War II and highlights the challenges facing the Western world in an era of rising nationalism and declining faith in multilateral institutions. How this crisis is resolved—or not—will have implications that extend far beyond Greenland itself, affecting the future of NATO, the European Union, and the rules-based world order that has characterized international relations for decades.

This crisis also forces us to reflect on the nature of the transatlantic alliance itself. For decades, the alliance between the United States and Europe has been founded on shared values, common interests, and mutual respect. Today, it appears to be threatened by a transactional approach that treats international relations like trade negotiations and allies as potential partners or adversaries, depending on the circumstances. This transformation could have irreversible consequences for the security and prosperity of the collective West, and it compels us to rethink the foundations of our international cooperation.

When I look at what is happening, I feel as though I am witnessing something historic—and not in a good way. It’s as if we’re living through the end of an era—one in which the West spoke with one voice, in which alliances meant something, and in which international law wasn’t just a suggestion. What breaks my heart is that generations of people worked to build this system, believed that cooperation was possible, and thought we could build a better world together. And all of that—all that legacy, all that hope—is being thrown overboard by a man who wants more power, more land, more control. It is a tragedy in the Greek sense of the word, an inevitable catastrophe caused by the very flaws of those who bring it about.

The Future of the U.S.-European Alliance

The future of the U.S.-European alliance is now more uncertain than ever. The Greenland crisis has highlighted the deep differences between the United States and Europe on how to conduct international relations and ensure collective security. While Europe seeks to uphold the rules-based international order and strengthen multilateral cooperation, the U.S. approach appears increasingly characterized by unilateralism and transactionalism. These fundamental differences would be difficult to reconcile without a significant shift in the U.S. approach.

However, it is possible that this crisis, as painful as it may be, could ultimately lead to a necessary reconfiguration of transatlantic relations. Europe, forced to reflect on its own security and strategic autonomy, could emerge from this crisis with a strengthened identity and capacity for action. The United States, for its part, may be led to reflect on the role it wishes to play in the world and on the benefits of a more cooperative approach to international relations. In any case, one thing is certain: the U.S.-European alliance, whatever form it may take in the future, will never be the same again after this Greenland crisis.

Sources

Primary sources

ABC News, “Europe mobilizes as Trump again demands ‘complete and total control’ of Greenland,” January 19, 2026, https://abcnews.go.com/International/trumps-greenland-threats-prompt-extraordinary-meeting-european-leaders/story?id=129340526

Politico, “Trump’s stated reasons for taking Greenland are being picked apart,” January 16, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/16/europeans-befuddled-by-trumps-russian-rationale-for-greenland-00734955

Reuters, “Trump links Greenland threat to Nobel Peace Prize snub, EU prepares to retaliate,” January 19, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-tells-norway-he-no-longer-feels-obligation-think-only-peace-2026-01-19/