The Elephant in the Room
It’s a rare occurrence, almost taboo: Quebec is about to shrink. Not geographically, no, but demographically. It’s the elephant in the room that everyone sees, but that no political decision-maker seems willing to talk about. In concrete terms? While Canada’s population is set to skyrocket in the coming decades, ours will stagnate—or even begin to decline.
This isn’t science fiction; these are the cold, hard numbers from Statistics Canada. And this major trend is going to hit our economy head-on. We’re talking about a dwindling political influence within the federation and, above all, a workforce that’s melting away like snow in the sun in the face of an army of new retirees. The thorny question is therefore simple: how are we going to pay for all of this?
Dizzying figures
Let’s face the facts. According to the average growth scenario, Canada’s population will rise from 41.7 million in 2025 to 49 million in 2050. And what about Quebec? We currently have a population of 9.058 million. By 2030, we’ll fall back below the 9-million mark, barely reaching 9.047 million by 2050. Basically, a net decline of 11,400 people is projected over 25 years.
Meanwhile, our neighbors aren’t sitting idle. Ontario is set to gain nearly 3 million residents, and Alberta more than 2 million, closing in dangerously on Quebec’s demographic weight with its projected 7.22 million residents. The bottom line? Our political clout in Canada will drop from 21.8% to 18.6%. Fewer people means potentially fewer federal transfers and less influence in Ottawa.
The driving force behind this decline is simple: more people are dying than being born. Over the next 25 years, there will be 615,000 more deaths than births. Even net immigration, estimated at 603,600 people, won’t be enough to fill the gap. With a fertility rate of 1.33 (compared to 1.25 in Canada), natural population replacement is no longer occurring.
Meanwhile, costs are skyrocketing
This stagnation wouldn’t be so serious if we weren’t one of the fastest-aging societies in the world. Every year, 100,000 more people retire. This means fewer workers to keep the economy running, but healthcare costs that are skyrocketing. Standard & Poor’s has already downgraded Quebec’s credit rating due to rising borrowing for infrastructure projects. Debt is mounting, and the financial markets are watching us closely.
And in everyday life? Inflation is hitting hard. Metro has announced that price increases could exceed the usual 2–3% as early as next week. That’s a hard pill to swallow when you consider that the total compensation for the grocery chain’s top executives jumped 15.9% to reach $16.3 million in 2025. It’s a stark contrast to households struggling to make ends meet on their grocery budgets.
For businesses, it’s a real headache. 98% of Quebec companies are SMEs—the true lifeblood of our economy. Yet they’re desperately short-staffed. Policies to reduce the number of temporary foreign workers are causing concern, as these employees have become essential, from Montreal to the regions.
Hey politicians, is there a plan?
Faced with this obstacle, the silence from aspiring leaders is deafening. What do Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Christine Fréchette, Bernard Drainville, Éric Duhaime, Ruba Ghazal, or Charles Milliard have to say? If the Parti Québécois takes power, how will it manage independence with a shrinking population and skyrocketing healthcare costs?
And that’s not all. With Donald Trump threatening to tear up the free trade agreement (USMCA) and impose tariffs, the future of our forestry workers is becoming increasingly precarious. Who has a strategy for housing? For productivity? For maintaining our public services without burdening future generations with debt?
We’re going to have to talk about the economy and finances before 2026. If we’re promised better hospitals and new roads, the least they could do is explain how they plan to pay for them with fewer taxpayers. Per capita GDP may increase, of course, but the government’s ability to care for an aging population is the real challenge of tomorrow. Dear candidates, the floor is yours.
Quebec Is Set to Lose Residents: This Wall That Threatens Your Wallet
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